Riding profile

Haldimand—Norfolk

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on sw

The question

Haldimand—Norfolk: will IND lose this seat to OTH?

Current forecast

OTH

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OTH 64.1%
  • PC 24.2%
  • OLP 6.5%
  • NDP 5.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OTH PC OLP NDP
HereHaldimand—Norfolk 64.1%24.2%6.5%5.0%
Provincial averageOntario 4.0% +60.1 41.4% −17.2 32.3% −25.8 19.5% −14.6

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Haldimand—Norfolk, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 64% vote share, against 24% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bobbi Ann Brady

Sits with IND

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
OTH
Margin
39.9 pts
Turnout
54.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.0 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
BOBBI ANN BRADY Elected IND 33,669 63.6 —
AMY MARTIN PC 12,949 24.5 —
VANDAN PATEL OLP 2,918 5.5 —
ERICA ENGLERT NDP 2,147 4.1 —
ANNA MASSINEN GP 821 1.6 —
GARRY TANCHAK OTH 392 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029