Riding profile
Haldimand—Norfolk
The question
Haldimand—Norfolk: will IND lose this seat to OTH?
Editorial read
Haldimand—Norfolk, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 63% vote share, against 23% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bobbi Ann Brady
Sits with IND
Current forecast
OTH
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 40.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OTH | PC | OLP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHaldimand—Norfolk | 63.1% | 23.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 2.2% +60.8 | 40.2% −17.2 | 33.4% −26.1 | 20.3% −14.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOBBI ANN BRADY Elected | IND | 33,669 | 63.6 | — |
| AMY MARTIN | PC | 12,949 | 24.5 | — |
| VANDAN PATEL | OLP | 2,918 | 5.5 | — |
| ERICA ENGLERT | NDP | 2,147 | 4.1 | — |
| ANNA MASSINEN | GP | 821 | 1.6 | — |
| GARRY TANCHAK | OTH | 392 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029