Riding profile

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on east

The question

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 40% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stéphane Sarrazin

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 49.6%
  • OLP 40.0%
  • NDP 5.7%
  • OTH 2.9%
  • GP 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereGlengarry—Prescott—Russell 49.6%40.0%5.7%2.9%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +9.4 33.4% +6.7 20.3% −14.5 2.2% +0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
14.3 pts
Turnout
47.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
STÉPHANE SARRAZIN Elected PC 24,618 51.4
TREVOR STEWART OLP 17,752 37.0
RYDER FINLAY NDP 2,384 5.0
THAILA RIDEN GP 1,089 2.3
FELIX LABROSSE OTH 971 2.0
BRANDON WALLINGFORD OTH 800 1.7
JASON ST-LOUIS IND 321 0.7
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029