Riding profile
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
The question
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 36.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | 59.3% | 22.6% | 12.6% | 4.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +17.9 | 32.3% −9.6 | 19.5% −7.0 | 4.0% +0.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 23% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Nolan Quinn
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOLAN QUINN Elected | PC | 23,221 | 61.6 | — |
| DEVON MONKHOUSE | OLP | 7,254 | 19.2 | — |
| JEREMY ROSE | NDP | 4,726 | 12.5 | — |
| NICHOLAS LAPIERRE | GP | 980 | 2.6 | — |
| STEFAN KOHUT | OTH | 818 | 2.2 | — |
| BRIGITTE SUGRUE | OTH | 715 | 1.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029