Riding profile
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
The question
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 24% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Nolan Quinn
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 35.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | 58.6% | 23.5% | 13.3% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +18.4 | 33.4% −9.8 | 20.3% −7.0 | 2.2% +0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOLAN QUINN Elected | PC | 23,221 | 61.6 | — |
| DEVON MONKHOUSE | OLP | 7,254 | 19.2 | — |
| JEREMY ROSE | NDP | 4,726 | 12.5 | — |
| NICHOLAS LAPIERRE | GP | 980 | 2.6 | — |
| STEFAN KOHUT | OTH | 818 | 2.2 | — |
| BRIGITTE SUGRUE | OTH | 715 | 1.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029