Riding profile

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 24% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Nolan Quinn

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 58.6%
  • OLP 23.5%
  • NDP 13.3%
  • OTH 2.6%
  • GP 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereStormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 58.6%23.5%13.3%2.6%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +18.4 33.4% −9.8 20.3% −7.0 2.2% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
42.3 pts
Turnout
43.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
NOLAN QUINN Elected PC 23,221 61.6
DEVON MONKHOUSE OLP 7,254 19.2
JEREMY ROSE NDP 4,726 12.5
NICHOLAS LAPIERRE GP 980 2.6
STEFAN KOHUT OTH 818 2.2
BRIGITTE SUGRUE OTH 715 1.9
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029