Riding profile

Mushkegowuk—James Bay

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Mushkegowuk—James Bay: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

NDP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.4
P(close race)
41%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 47.9%
  • PC 42.5%
  • OLP 8.7%
  • OTH 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP OTH
HereMushkegowuk—James Bay 47.9%42.5%8.7%0.7%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +28.3 41.4% +1.1 32.3% −23.6 4.0% −3.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mushkegowuk—James Bay, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Guy Bourgouin

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
0.1 pts
Turnout
41.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
GUY BOURGOUIN Elected NDP 3,626 45.4 —
DAVE PLOURDE PC 3,617 45.3 —
KYLE ALLEN OLP 621 7.8 —
CATHERINE JONES GP 116 1.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029