Riding profile
Mushkegowuk—James Bay
The question
Mushkegowuk—James Bay: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Mushkegowuk—James Bay, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 48% vote share, against 41% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Guy Bourgouin
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 10%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMushkegowuk—James Bay | 48.4% | 41.2% | 9.3% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +28.2 | 40.2% +1.0 | 33.4% −24.0 | 3.9% −2.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GUY BOURGOUIN Elected | NDP | 3,626 | 45.4 | — |
| DAVE PLOURDE | PC | 3,617 | 45.3 | — |
| KYLE ALLEN | OLP | 621 | 7.8 | — |
| CATHERINE JONES | GP | 116 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029