Riding profile
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
The question
Thunder Bay—Atikokan: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThunder Bay—Atikokan | 43.0% | 28.6% | 25.4% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +1.6 | 19.5% +9.1 | 32.3% −6.8 | 4.0% −1.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Thunder Bay—Atikokan, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 29% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Kevin Holland
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEVIN HOLLAND Elected | PC | 13,727 | 45.7 | — |
| JUDITH MONTEITH-FARRELL | NDP | 7,766 | 25.9 | — |
| STEPHEN MARGARIT | OLP | 7,398 | 24.6 | — |
| MARTIN TEMPELMAN | OTH | 497 | 1.7 | — |
| ERIC ARNER | GP | 457 | 1.5 | — |
| K.C. JONES | OTH | 184 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029