Riding profile

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Thunder Bay—Atikokan: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Thunder Bay—Atikokan, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 29% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Kevin Holland

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 42.2%
  • NDP 29.5%
  • OLP 26.3%
  • GP 1.1%
  • OTH 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC NDP OLP GP
HereThunder Bay—Atikokan 42.2%29.5%26.3%1.1%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +1.9 20.3% +9.2 33.4% −7.0 3.9% −2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
19.9 pts
Turnout
49.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
KEVIN HOLLAND Elected PC 13,727 45.7 —
JUDITH MONTEITH-FARRELL NDP 7,766 25.9 —
STEPHEN MARGARIT OLP 7,398 24.6 —
MARTIN TEMPELMAN OTH 497 1.7 —
ERIC ARNER GP 457 1.5 —
K.C. JONES OTH 184 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029