Riding profile
Thunder Bay—Superior North
The question
Thunder Bay—Superior North: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThunder Bay—Superior North | 43.2% | 31.5% | 22.1% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +23.7 | 41.4% −10.0 | 32.3% −10.1 | 4.0% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Thunder Bay—Superior North, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 31% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lise Vaugeois
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LISE VAUGEOIS Elected | NDP | 11,137 | 40.6 | — |
| RICK DUMAS | PC | 9,348 | 34.0 | — |
| BRIAN HAMILTON | OLP | 5,846 | 21.3 | — |
| JOHN NORTHEY | GP | 437 | 1.6 | — |
| DANIEL K. CAMPBELL | OTH | 336 | 1.2 | — |
| KATHERINE SUUTARI | OTH | 265 | 1.0 | — |
| STEVE HANSSEN | IND | 82 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029