Riding profile
Thunder Bay—Superior North
The question
Thunder Bay—Superior North: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Thunder Bay—Superior North, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 44% vote share, against 31% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lise Vaugeois
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThunder Bay—Superior North | 44.2% | 30.5% | 23.0% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +24.0 | 40.2% −9.7 | 33.4% −10.4 | 3.9% −2.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LISE VAUGEOIS Elected | NDP | 11,137 | 40.6 | — |
| RICK DUMAS | PC | 9,348 | 34.0 | — |
| BRIAN HAMILTON | OLP | 5,846 | 21.3 | — |
| JOHN NORTHEY | GP | 437 | 1.6 | — |
| DANIEL K. CAMPBELL | OTH | 336 | 1.2 | — |
| KATHERINE SUUTARI | OTH | 265 | 1.0 | — |
| STEVE HANSSEN | IND | 82 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029