Riding profile
Kiiwetinoong
The question
Kiiwetinoong: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 39.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKiiwetinoong | 62.8% | 23.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +43.2 | 41.4% −18.2 | 32.3% −22.1 | 4.0% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Kiiwetinoong, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 63% vote share, against 23% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sol Mamakwa
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL MAMAKWA Elected | NDP | 3,512 | 62.2 | — |
| WAYLON SCOTT | PC | 1,438 | 25.5 | — |
| MANUELA MICHELIZZI | OLP | 409 | 7.2 | — |
| CAROLYN SPICER | GP | 152 | 2.7 | — |
| THERESA LEPPICH | OTH | 136 | 2.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029