Riding profile

Kiiwetinoong

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on provincewide

The question

Kiiwetinoong: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 62.8%
  • PC 23.2%
  • OLP 10.2%
  • OTH 2.9%
  • GP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP OTH
HereKiiwetinoong 62.8%23.2%10.2%2.9%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +43.2 41.4% −18.2 32.3% −22.1 4.0% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kiiwetinoong, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 63% vote share, against 23% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sol Mamakwa

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
36.7 pts
Turnout
27.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
SOL MAMAKWA Elected NDP 3,512 62.2
WAYLON SCOTT PC 1,438 25.5
MANUELA MICHELIZZI OLP 409 7.2
CAROLYN SPICER GP 152 2.7
THERESA LEPPICH OTH 136 2.4
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029