Riding profile

Kenora—Rainy River

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on north

The question

Kenora—Rainy River: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Kenora—Rainy River, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 22% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Greg Rickford

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 56.4%
  • NDP 22.4%
  • OLP 19.1%
  • GP 1.5%
  • OTH 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC NDP OLP GP
HereKenora—Rainy River 56.4%22.4%19.1%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +16.1 20.3% +2.2 33.4% −14.2 3.9% −2.4

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
41.1 pts
Turnout
47.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
GREG RICKFORD Elected PC 10,541 59.9
RUDY TURTLE NDP 3,308 18.8
ANTHONY LEEK OLP 3,072 17.5
JOHN REDINS GP 336 1.9
RANDY RICCI OTH 333 1.9
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029