Riding profile
Kenora—Rainy River
The question
Kenora—Rainy River: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Kenora—Rainy River, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 22% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Greg Rickford
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | NDP | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKenora—Rainy River | 56.4% | 22.4% | 19.1% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +16.1 | 20.3% +2.2 | 33.4% −14.2 | 3.9% −2.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GREG RICKFORD Elected | PC | 10,541 | 59.9 | — |
| RUDY TURTLE | NDP | 3,308 | 18.8 | — |
| ANTHONY LEEK | OLP | 3,072 | 17.5 | — |
| JOHN REDINS | GP | 336 | 1.9 | — |
| RANDY RICCI | OTH | 333 | 1.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029