Riding profile
Dumfries and Galloway
The question
Dumfries and Galloway: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Dumfries and Galloway, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 26% vote share, against 22% for the SNP, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
John Cooper
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.0
- P(close race)
- 93%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDumfries and Galloway | 25.8% | 21.8% | 17.4% | 15.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +6.9 | 2.5% +19.2 | 25.3% −7.9 | 21.7% −5.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Cooper Elected | Conservative | 13,527 | 29.6 | — |
| Tracey Little | SNP | 12,597 | 27.5 | — |
| James Wallace | Labour | 11,767 | 25.7 | — |
| Charles Keal | Reform UK | 4,313 | 9.4 | — |
| Iain McDonald | Lib Dems | 2,092 | 4.6 | — |
| Laura Moodie | Green | 1,249 | 2.7 | — |
| David Griffiths | Other | 230 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029