Riding profile

North Down

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

North Down: will Independent lose this seat to Other?

Editorial read

North Down, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 47% vote share, against 3% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alex Easton

Sits with Independent

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 47.0%
  • Green 2.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Green Conservative Labour
HereNorth Down 47.0%2.8%0.2%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +42.2 11.8% −9.0 18.9% −18.7 21.7% −21.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Other
Margin
17.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alex Easton Elected Other 20,913 48.3
Stephen Farry Alliance 13,608 31.4
Tim Collins UUP 6,754 15.6
Barry McKee Green 1,247 2.9
Deirdre Vaughan SDLP 657 1.5
Chris Carter Other 117 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029