Riding profile
Belfast East
The question
Belfast East: will DUP lose this seat to UK_DUP?
Editorial read
Belfast East, an urban constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_DUP Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_DUP Party ahead at 5% vote share, against 2% for the Green Party, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Gavin Robinson
Sits with DUP
Current forecast
UK_DUP
Competitive
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.1
- P(close race)
- 34%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBelfast East | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 4.8% | 11.8% −9.4 | 18.9% −18.7 | 21.7% −21.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Robinson Elected | DUP | 19,894 | 46.6 | — |
| Naomi Long | Alliance | 17,218 | 40.3 | — |
| John Ross | TUV | 1,918 | 4.5 | — |
| Ryan Warren | UUP | 1,818 | 4.3 | — |
| Brian Smyth | Green | 1,077 | 2.5 | — |
| Séamas De Faoite | SDLP | 619 | 1.4 | — |
| Ryan North | Other | 162 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029