Riding profile
Belfast West
The question
Belfast West: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?
Editorial read
Belfast West, an urban constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 20% vote share, against 1% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Paul Maskey
Sits with Sinn Féin
Current forecast
UK_SF
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBelfast West | 20.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 4.8% +15.4 | 11.8% −10.7 | 18.9% −18.7 | 21.7% −21.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Maskey Elected | Sinn Féin | 21,009 | 52.9 | — |
| Gerry Carrol | Other | 5,048 | 12.7 | — |
| Paul Doherty | SDLP | 4,318 | 10.9 | — |
| Frank McCoubrey | DUP | 4,304 | 10.8 | — |
| Ann McClure | TUV | 2,010 | 5.1 | — |
| Eóin Millar | Alliance | 1,077 | 2.7 | — |
| Gerard Herdman | Aontú | 904 | 2.3 | — |
| Ben Sharkey | UUP | 461 | 1.2 | — |
| Ash Jones | Green | 451 | 1.1 | — |
| Tony Mallon | Other | 161 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029