Riding profile
South Antrim
The question
South Antrim: will UUP lose this seat to UK_UUP?
Editorial read
South Antrim, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_UUP Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_UUP Party ahead at 7% vote share, against 1% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Robin Swann
Sits with UUP
Current forecast
UK_UUP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Antrim | 7.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 4.8% +2.3 | 11.8% −10.6 | 18.9% −18.7 | 21.7% −21.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Swann Elected | UUP | 16,311 | 38.0 | — |
| Paul Girvan | DUP | 8,799 | 20.5 | — |
| Declan Kearney | Sinn Féin | 8,034 | 18.7 | — |
| John Blair | Alliance | 4,574 | 10.7 | — |
| Mel Lucas | TUV | 2,693 | 6.3 | — |
| Roisin Lynch | SDLP | 1,589 | 3.7 | — |
| Lesley Veronica | Green | 541 | 1.3 | — |
| Siobhan McErlean | Aontú | 367 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029