Riding profile
Belfast North
The question
Belfast North: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?
Current forecast
UK_SF
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.6
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Green | SNP | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBelfast North | 9.3% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0% +4.2 | 10.8% −7.9 | 2.8% −2.6 | 19.3% −19.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Belfast North, an urban constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 9% vote share, against 3% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John Finucane
Sits with Sinn Féin
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Finucane Elected | Sinn Féin | 17,674 | 43.7 | — |
| Phillip Brett | DUP | 12,062 | 29.8 | — |
| Nuala McAllister | Alliance | 4,274 | 10.6 | — |
| David Clarke | TUV | 2,877 | 7.1 | — |
| Carl Whyte | SDLP | 1,413 | 3.5 | — |
| Mal O'Hara | Green | 1,206 | 3.0 | — |
| Fiona Ferguson | Other | 946 | 2.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029