Riding profile

Belfast North

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Urban · northern ireland

The question

Belfast North: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?

Editorial read

Belfast North, an urban constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 9% vote share, against 3% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

John Finucane

Sits with Sinn Féin

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

UK_SF

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.6
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 9.3%
  • Green 2.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Green SNP Conservative
HereBelfast North 9.3%2.9%0.2%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +4.5 11.8% −8.9 2.5% −2.3 18.9% −18.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
UK_SF
Margin
13.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Finucane Elected Sinn Féin 17,674 43.7
Phillip Brett DUP 12,062 29.8
Nuala McAllister Alliance 4,274 10.6
David Clarke TUV 2,877 7.1
Carl Whyte SDLP 1,413 3.5
Mal O'Hara Green 1,206 3.0
Fiona Ferguson Other 946 2.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029