Riding profile
Lagan Valley
The question
Lagan Valley: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
UK_ALLIANCE
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.9
- P(close race)
- 37%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLagan Valley | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0% −0.7 | 10.8% −9.9 | 19.3% −19.1 | 21.8% −21.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Lagan Valley, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_ALLIANCE Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_ALLIANCE Party ahead at 4% vote share, against 1% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sorcha Eastwood
Sits with Alliance
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sorcha-Lucy Eastwood Elected | Alliance | 18,618 | 37.9 | — |
| Jonathan Buckley | DUP | 15,659 | 31.9 | — |
| Robbie Butler | UUP | 11,157 | 22.7 | — |
| Lorna Smyth | TUV | 2,186 | 4.5 | — |
| Simon Lee | SDLP | 1,028 | 2.1 | — |
| Patricia Denvir | Green | 433 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029