Riding profile

South Down

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

South Down: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?

Editorial read

South Down, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 6% vote share, against 1% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chris Hazzard

Sits with Sinn Féin

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

UK_SF

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 5.9%
  • Green 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Green Conservative Labour
HereSouth Down 5.9%1.0%0.3%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +1.1 11.8% −10.9 18.9% −18.6 21.7% −21.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
UK_SF
Margin
20.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Hazzard Elected Sinn Féin 19,698 43.5
Colin McGrath SDLP 10,418 23.0
Diane Forsythe DUP 7,349 16.2
Andrew McMurray Alliance 3,187 7.0
Jim Wells TUV 1,893 4.2
Michael O'Loan UUP 1,411 3.1
Rosemary McGlone Aontú 797 1.8
Declan Walsh Green 444 1.0
Hannah Westropp Conservative 46 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029