Riding profile
Strangford
The question
Strangford: will DUP lose this seat to UK_DUP?
Editorial read
Strangford, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_DUP Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_DUP Party ahead at 9% vote share, against 2% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jim Shannon
Sits with DUP
Current forecast
UK_DUP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStrangford | 9.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 4.8% +4.3 | 11.8% −10.0 | 18.9% −18.4 | 21.7% −21.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Shannon Elected | DUP | 15,559 | 40.0 | — |
| Michelle Guy | Alliance | 10,428 | 26.8 | — |
| Richard Smart | UUP | 3,941 | 10.1 | — |
| Ron McDowell | TUV | 3,143 | 8.1 | — |
| Noel Sands | Sinn Féin | 2,793 | 7.2 | — |
| Will Polland | SDLP | 1,783 | 4.6 | — |
| Alexandra Braidner | Green | 703 | 1.8 | — |
| Garreth Falls | Other | 256 | 0.7 | — |
| Gareth Burns | Other | 157 | 0.4 | — |
| Barry Hetherington | Conservative | 146 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029