Riding profile
Belfast South and Mid Down
The question
Belfast South and Mid Down: will SDLP lose this seat to UK_SDLP?
Editorial read
Belfast South and Mid Down, an urban constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SDLP Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SDLP Party ahead at 5% vote share, against 4% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Claire Hanna
Sits with SDLP
Current forecast
UK_SDLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBelfast South and Mid Down | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 4.8% +0.2 | 11.8% −8.3 | 18.9% −18.7 | 21.7% −21.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Hanna Elected | SDLP | 21,345 | 49.1 | — |
| Kate Nicholl | Alliance | 8,839 | 20.3 | — |
| Tracy Kelly | DUP | 6,859 | 15.8 | — |
| Michael Henderson | UUP | 2,653 | 6.1 | — |
| Dan Boucher | TUV | 2,218 | 5.1 | — |
| Ãine Groogan | Green | 1,577 | 3.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029