Riding profile

Upper Bann

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

Upper Bann: will DUP lose this seat to UK_DUP?

Editorial read

Upper Bann, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_DUP Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_DUP Party ahead at 1% vote share, against 0% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Carla Lockhart

Sits with DUP

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

UK_DUP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Green Conservative Labour
HereUpper Bann 0.7%0.2%0.2%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% −4.1 11.8% −11.6 18.9% −18.7 21.7% −21.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
UK_DUP
Margin
15.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Carla Lockhart Elected DUP 21,642 45.7 —
Catherine Nelson Sinn Féin 14,236 30.1 —
Eóin Tennyson Alliance 6,322 13.3 —
Kate Evans UUP 3,662 7.7 —
Malachy Quinn SDLP 1,496 3.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029