Riding profile
Newry and Armagh
The question
Newry and Armagh: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?
Editorial read
Newry and Armagh, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 11% vote share, against 0% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dáire Hughes
Sits with Sinn Féin
Current forecast
UK_SF
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewry and Armagh | 10.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 4.8% +5.9 | 18.9% −18.6 | 21.7% −21.5 | 11.6% −11.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dáire Hughes Elected | Sinn Féin | 22,299 | 48.5 | — |
| Pete Byrne | SDLP | 6,806 | 14.8 | — |
| Gareth Wilson | DUP | 5,900 | 12.8 | — |
| Keith Ratcliffe | TUV | 4,099 | 8.9 | — |
| Sam Nicholson | UUP | 3,175 | 6.9 | — |
| Helena Young | Alliance | 2,692 | 5.9 | — |
| Liam Reichenberg | Aontú | 888 | 1.9 | — |
| Samantha Rayner | Conservative | 83 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029