Riding profile
Mid Ulster
The question
Mid Ulster: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?
Editorial read
Mid Ulster, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 9% vote share, against 0% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Cathal Mallaghan
Sits with Sinn Féin
Current forecast
UK_SF
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMid Ulster | 9.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 4.8% +4.4 | 18.9% −18.7 | 21.7% −21.5 | 11.6% −11.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathal Mallaghan Elected | Sinn Féin | 24,085 | 53.0 | — |
| Keith Buchanan | DUP | 9,162 | 20.2 | — |
| Denise Johnston | SDLP | 3,722 | 8.2 | — |
| Glenn Moore | TUV | 2,978 | 6.5 | — |
| Jay Basra | UUP | 2,269 | 5.0 | — |
| Padraic Farrell | Alliance | 2,001 | 4.4 | — |
| Alixandra Halliday | Aontú | 1,047 | 2.3 | — |
| John Kelly | Other | 181 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029