Riding profile

Mid Ulster

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

Mid Ulster: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?

Editorial read

Mid Ulster, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 9% vote share, against 0% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Cathal Mallaghan

Sits with Sinn Féin

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

UK_SF

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 9.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereMid Ulster 9.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +4.4 18.9% −18.7 21.7% −21.5 11.6% −11.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
UK_SF
Margin
32.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cathal Mallaghan Elected Sinn Féin 24,085 53.0
Keith Buchanan DUP 9,162 20.2
Denise Johnston SDLP 3,722 8.2
Glenn Moore TUV 2,978 6.5
Jay Basra UUP 2,269 5.0
Padraic Farrell Alliance 2,001 4.4
Alixandra Halliday Aontú 1,047 2.3
John Kelly Other 181 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029