Riding profile

West Tyrone

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

West Tyrone: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?

Editorial read

West Tyrone, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 7% vote share, against 0% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Órfhlaith Begley

Sits with Sinn Féin

Since
2018-05-03
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

UK_SF

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 7.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereWest Tyrone 7.5%0.4%0.2%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +2.7 18.9% −18.5 21.7% −21.5 11.6% −11.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
UK_SF
Margin
36.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Órfhlaith Begley Elected Sinn Féin 22,711 52.0
Tom Buchanan DUP 6,794 15.6
Daniel McCrossan SDLP 5,821 13.3
Matthew Bell UUP 2,683 6.1
Stevan Patterson TUV 2,530 5.8
Stephen Donnelly Alliance 2,287 5.2
Leza Houston Aontú 778 1.8
Stephen Lynch Conservative 91 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029