Riding profile
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
The question
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: will Sinn Féin lose this seat to UK_SF?
Current forecast
UK_SF
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 13%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFermanagh and South Tyrone | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0% −2.8 | 19.3% −19.1 | 21.8% −21.6 | 11.4% −11.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Fermanagh and South Tyrone, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SF Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SF Party ahead at 2% vote share, against 0% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Pat Cullen
Sits with Sinn Féin
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Cullen Elected | Sinn Féin | 24,844 | 48.6 | — |
| Diana Armstrong | UUP | 20,273 | 39.7 | — |
| Eddie Roofe | Alliance | 2,420 | 4.7 | — |
| Paul Blake | SDLP | 2,386 | 4.7 | — |
| Gerry Cullen | Other | 624 | 1.2 | — |
| Carl Duffy | Aontú | 529 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029