Riding profile

East Londonderry

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

East Londonderry: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

East Londonderry, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_DUP Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_DUP Party ahead at 13% vote share, against 1% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Gregory Campbell

Sits with DUP

Since
2001-06-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

UK_DUP

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 12.9%
  • Green 1.1%
  • Conservative 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Green Conservative Labour
HereEast Londonderry 12.9%1.1%0.6%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +8.2 11.8% −10.8 18.9% −18.3 21.7% −21.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
UK_DUP
Margin
0.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gregory Campbell Elected DUP 11,506 27.9
Kathleen McGurk Sinn Féin 11,327 27.4
Cara Hunter SDLP 5,260 12.7
Allister Kyle TUV 4,363 10.6
Richard Stewart Alliance 3,734 9.1
Glen Miller UUP 3,412 8.3
Gemma Brolly Aontú 1,043 2.5
Jen McCahon Green 445 1.1
Claire Scull Conservative 187 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029