Riding profile

North Antrim

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

North Antrim: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North Antrim, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 29% vote share, against 0% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jim Allister

Sits with TUV

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Other

Toss-up

Probability
83%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
83%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 29.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth Antrim 29.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +24.6 18.9% −18.7 21.7% −21.5 11.6% −11.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Other
Margin
2.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jim Allister Elected TUV 11,642 28.3
Ian Paisley DUP 11,192 27.2
Philip McGuigan Sinn Féin 7,714 18.7
Sian Mulholland Alliance 4,488 10.9
Jackson Minford UUP 3,901 9.5
Helen Maher SDLP 1,661 4.0
Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill Aontú 451 1.1
Tristan Morrow Other 136 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029