Riding profile

East Antrim

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

East Antrim: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

East Antrim, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_DUP Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_DUP Party ahead at 10% vote share, against 1% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sammy Wilson

Sits with DUP

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

UK_DUP

Toss-up

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
79%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 10.3%
  • Green 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Green Conservative Labour
HereEast Antrim 10.3%1.4%0.2%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +5.5 11.8% −10.4 18.9% −18.7 21.7% −21.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
UK_DUP
Margin
3.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sammy Wilson Elected DUP 11,462 28.9
Danny Donnelly Alliance 10,156 25.6
John Stewart UUP 9,476 23.9
Matthew Warwick TUV 4,135 10.4
Oliver McMullan Sinn Féin 2,986 7.5
Margaret McKillop SDLP 892 2.3
Mark Bailey Green 568 1.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029