Riding profile

Foyle

UK constituency — Northern Ireland · Mixed · northern ireland

The question

Foyle: will SDLP lose this seat to UK_SDLP?

Editorial read

Foyle, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SDLP Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SDLP Party ahead at 12% vote share, against 0% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Colum Eastwood

Sits with SDLP

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

UK_SDLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 11.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereFoyle 11.9%0.2%0.2%0.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 4.8% +7.1 18.9% −18.7 21.7% −21.5 11.6% −11.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
UK_SDLP
Margin
10.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Colum Eastwood Elected SDLP 15,647 40.8
Sandra Duffy Sinn Féin 11,481 29.9
Gary Middleton DUP 3,915 10.2
Shaun Harkin Other 2,444 6.4
Anne McCloskey Other 1,519 4.0
Janice Montgomery UUP 1,422 3.7
Rachael Ferguson Alliance 1,268 3.3
John Boyle Aontú 662 1.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029