Riding profile
Foyle
The question
Foyle: will SDLP lose this seat to UK_SDLP?
Editorial read
Foyle, a mixed constituency in Northern Ireland, elected a member with the UK_SDLP Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the UK_SDLP Party ahead at 12% vote share, against 0% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Colum Eastwood
Sits with SDLP
Current forecast
UK_SDLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.8
- P(close race)
- 6%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFoyle | 11.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 4.8% +7.1 | 18.9% −18.7 | 21.7% −21.5 | 11.6% −11.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colum Eastwood Elected | SDLP | 15,647 | 40.8 | — |
| Sandra Duffy | Sinn Féin | 11,481 | 29.9 | — |
| Gary Middleton | DUP | 3,915 | 10.2 | — |
| Shaun Harkin | Other | 2,444 | 6.4 | — |
| Anne McCloskey | Other | 1,519 | 4.0 | — |
| Janice Montgomery | UUP | 1,422 | 3.7 | — |
| Rachael Ferguson | Alliance | 1,268 | 3.3 | — |
| John Boyle | Aontú | 662 | 1.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029