Riding profile
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber
The question
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: a safe seat for the SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereArgyll, Bute and South Lochaber | 30.4% | 21.7% | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +27.6 | 19.3% +2.4 | 11.4% +6.6 | 25.4% −9.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Brendan O'Hara
Sits with SNP
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan O'Hara Elected | SNP | 15,582 | 34.7 | — |
| Amanda Hampsey | Conservative | 9,350 | 20.8 | — |
| Hamish Maxwell | Labour | 8,585 | 19.1 | — |
| Alan Reid | Lib Dems | 7,359 | 16.4 | — |
| Melanie Hurst | Reform UK | 3,045 | 6.8 | — |
| Tommy MacPherson | Other | 941 | 2.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029