Riding profile

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: a safe seat for the SNP?

Editorial read

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 20% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Brendan O'Hara

Sits with SNP

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 30.1%
  • Reform UK 19.5%
  • Lib Dems 19.5%
  • Conservative 18.9%
  • Labour 5.5%
  • Green 3.6%
  • Other 2.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Lib Dems Conservative
HereArgyll, Bute and South Lochaber 30.1%19.5%19.5%18.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +27.6 25.3% −5.8 11.6% +7.9 18.9%

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
SNP
Margin
13.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Brendan O'Hara Elected SNP 15,582 34.7
Amanda Hampsey Conservative 9,350 20.8
Hamish Maxwell Labour 8,585 19.1
Alan Reid Lib Dems 7,359 16.4
Melanie Hurst Reform UK 3,045 6.8
Tommy MacPherson Other 941 2.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
73.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029