Riding profile
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
The question
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAyr, Carrick and Cumnock | 29.4% | 21.4% | 19.7% | 14.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +26.7 | 25.4% −3.9 | 19.3% +0.4 | 21.8% −7.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 29% vote share, against 21% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Elaine Stewart
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elaine Stewart Elected | Labour | 14,930 | 36.5 | — |
| Allan Dorans | SNP | 10,776 | 26.3 | — |
| Martin Dowey | Conservative | 9,247 | 22.6 | — |
| Andrew Russell | Reform UK | 3,544 | 8.7 | — |
| Paul Kennedy | Lib Dems | 1,081 | 2.6 | — |
| Korin Vallance | Green | 886 | 2.2 | — |
| Corri Wilson | Other | 472 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029