Riding profile
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
The question
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 23% vote share, against 21% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Elaine Stewart
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAyr, Carrick and Cumnock | 23.2% | 21.2% | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +20.7 | 21.7% −0.4 | 18.9% +1.5 | 25.3% −6.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elaine Stewart Elected | Labour | 14,930 | 36.5 | — |
| Allan Dorans | SNP | 10,776 | 26.3 | — |
| Martin Dowey | Conservative | 9,247 | 22.6 | — |
| Andrew Russell | Reform UK | 3,544 | 8.7 | — |
| Paul Kennedy | Lib Dems | 1,081 | 2.6 | — |
| Korin Vallance | Green | 886 | 2.2 | — |
| Corri Wilson | Other | 472 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029