Riding profile
Central Ayrshire
The question
Central Ayrshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Central Ayrshire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alan Gemmell
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCentral Ayrshire | 26.3% | 24.2% | 21.4% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +23.7 | 25.3% −1.1 | 21.7% −0.2 | 18.9% −5.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Gemmell Elected | Labour | 18,091 | 43.7 | — |
| Annie McIndoe | SNP | 11,222 | 27.1 | — |
| David Rocks | Conservative | 6,147 | 14.8 | — |
| Kevin Blades | Reform UK | 3,420 | 8.3 | — |
| Tom Kerr | Green | 1,039 | 2.5 | — |
| Elaine Ford | Lib Dems | 983 | 2.4 | — |
| Louise McDaid | Other | 329 | 0.8 | — |
| Alan MacMillan | Other | 188 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029