Riding profile
Central Ayrshire
The question
Central Ayrshire: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCentral Ayrshire | 32.1% | 23.8% | 16.0% | 13.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +29.3 | 25.4% −1.6 | 21.8% −5.9 | 19.3% −5.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Central Ayrshire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alan Gemmell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Gemmell Elected | Labour | 18,091 | 43.7 | — |
| Annie McIndoe | SNP | 11,222 | 27.1 | — |
| David Rocks | Conservative | 6,147 | 14.8 | — |
| Kevin Blades | Reform UK | 3,420 | 8.3 | — |
| Tom Kerr | Green | 1,039 | 2.5 | — |
| Elaine Ford | Lib Dems | 983 | 2.4 | — |
| Louise McDaid | Other | 329 | 0.8 | — |
| Alan MacMillan | Other | 188 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029