Central Ayrshire
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Ayrshire | 27.3% | 26.4% | 19.1% | 13.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8%+24.4 | 26.5%−0.1 | 22.3%−3.2 | 20.0%−6.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 71.8% |
|---|
Current member
Alan Gemmell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.6 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Gemmell Elected | Labour | 18,091 | 43.7 |
| Annie McIndoe | SNP | 11,222 | 27.1 |
| David Rocks | Conservative | 6,147 | 14.8 |
| Kevin Blades | Reform UK | 3,420 | 8.3 |
| Tom Kerr | Green | 1,039 | 2.5 |
| Elaine Ford | Lib Dems | 983 | 2.4 |
| Louise McDaid | Other | 329 | 0.8 |
| Alan MacMillan | Other | 188 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP, toss-up
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP, toss-up
- North Ayrshire and Arran SNP, safe seat
- Kilmarnock and Loudoun SNP, safe seat
- Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West SNP, competitive
- East Renfrewshire SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated