Riding profile

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Kilmarnock and Loudoun: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

Kilmarnock and Loudoun, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 31% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lillian Jones

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 31.4%
  • Labour 23.0%
  • Reform UK 22.8%
  • Conservative 8.3%
  • Green 6.9%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%
  • Other 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Conservative
HereKilmarnock and Loudoun 31.4%23.0%22.8%8.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +28.8 21.7% +1.3 25.3% −2.5 18.9% −10.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lillian Jones Elected Labour 19,055 44.9
Alan Brown SNP 13,936 32.8
Jordan Cowie Conservative 3,527 8.3
William Thomson Reform UK 3,472 8.2
Bex Glen Green 1,237 2.9
Edward Thornley Lib Dems 850 2.0
Stephen McNamara Other 401 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
72.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029