Riding profile

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Kilmarnock and Loudoun: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 33.8%
  • Reform UK 24.4%
  • Labour 19.7%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Conservative 7.8%
  • Lib Dems 3.0%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Green
HereKilmarnock and Loudoun 33.8%24.4%19.7%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +31.1 25.4% −0.9 21.8% −2.1 10.8% −2.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Kilmarnock and Loudoun, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lillian Jones

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lillian Jones Elected Labour 19,055 44.9 —
Alan Brown SNP 13,936 32.8 —
Jordan Cowie Conservative 3,527 8.3 —
William Thomson Reform UK 3,472 8.2 —
Bex Glen Green 1,237 2.9 —
Edward Thornley Lib Dems 850 2.0 —
Stephen McNamara Other 401 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
72.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029