Riding profile
North Ayrshire and Arran
The question
North Ayrshire and Arran: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Ayrshire and Arran | 34.4% | 22.3% | 15.0% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +31.6 | 25.4% −3.1 | 21.8% −6.8 | 19.3% −5.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North Ayrshire and Arran, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 34% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Irene Campbell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Campbell Elected | Labour | 16,821 | 39.8 | — |
| Patricia Gibson | SNP | 13,270 | 31.4 | — |
| Todd Ferguson | Conservative | 5,954 | 14.1 | — |
| Mike Mann | Reform UK | 3,415 | 8.1 | — |
| Cara McKee | Green | 1,327 | 3.1 | — |
| Gillian Cole-Hamilton | Lib Dems | 1,005 | 2.4 | — |
| Ian Gibson | Other | 238 | 0.6 | — |
| James McDaid | Other | 232 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029