Riding profile

Vanier-Les Rivières

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · qcc

The question

Vanier-Les Rivières: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
73%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 27.7%

    Françoise Faverjon-Fortin

  • PCQ 26.4%

    Patrick Paquet

  • PQ 24.1%

    Stéphanie Martin

  • QLP 13.8%

    Charles Hudon

  • QS 7.2%

    Karoline Boucher

  • Other 0.8%

    Marjorie Villeneuve Parti nul

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PCQ PQ QLP
HereVanier-Les Rivières 27.7%26.4%24.1%13.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +6.4 16.1% +10.3 27.9% −3.8 23.4% −9.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vanier-Les Rivières, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mario Asselin

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Françoise Faverjon-Fortin

    Françoise Faverjon-Fortin

    Corporate director, strategic advisor, and former CEO, Françoise Faverjon-Fortin has over 25 years of experience in governance and senior management, notably as chair and vice-chair of boards of directors. Former president and CEO of MedicAlert Canada and senior executive at Export Development Canada, she draws on recognized expertise in international business, financing, corporate risk management, and the infrastructure sector. A career that has enabled her to build an extensive network of professional relationships both in Canada and internationally. Very committed to the development of female leadership and mentoring for the next generation, she has notably held several governance positions within the International Women's Forum (IWF Canada and IWF Global) and contributed to major international strategic initiatives. A contribution that earned her the title of Visionary Leader from IWF Global. She holds a Bachelor of Business Administration, with a concentration in marketing, from Université Laval, and an MBA in finance awarded with distinction from the State University of New York. She has continued her training at several renowned institutions in executive leadership. Recognized for her sound judgment and strategic vision, Françoise Faverjon-Fortin also stands out for her influence in governance. In addition to having served for 13 years on the board of directors of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at UQAM, she has been a member of the Institute of Corporate Directors since 2005 and is among the first five Quebecers to have obtained the Canadian Directors Education Program designation.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Marjorie Villeneuve

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Patrick Paquet

    Patrick Paquet

    Patrick Paquet is a businessperson with more than 30 years of entrepreneurial experience. He first made his mark in the video-store business, owning five locations for 18 years. He then continued his entrepreneurial career by owning two dek hockey centres in the Quebec City region—Dekhockey Beauport and Dek Beauce—which he operated for 15 years. Passionate about cinema and dek hockey and deeply involved in his community, he also took part in municipal politics from 2005 to 2025. Elected three times, he devoted 15 years to active politics, including three years as second opposition leader at Quebec City Hall, building a strong reputation as an experienced politician. A municipal-politics commentator at CHOI Radio X, father of two and passionate communicator, Patrick Paquet is known for his outspokenness, analytical mind and ability to meet challenges with determination. Whether as an entrepreneur, elected official or commentator, he puts his experience and leadership at the service of citizens and the projects he cares about.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Stéphanie Martin

    Stéphanie Martin

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Charles Hudon

    Charles Hudon

    A native of Jonquière, Charles Hudon has lived in the Lebourgneuf neighborhood in the Vanier–Les Rivières riding since 2014. Until recently, he served as deputy director of the Criminal Investigations Division (financial crimes and cybercrime) at the Sûreté du Québec. Charles Hudon holds a master’s degree in administration from the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), in collaboration with the École nationale de police du Québec, and has nearly 28 years of experience with the Sûreté du Québec. His career has taken him into several areas: local law enforcement, human resources, strategic management, and major criminal investigations. Having begun his career as a patrol officer in the Saguenay Fjord and Lotbinière RCMs, he rose through the ranks of Quebec’s largest police force, working in areas such as criminal intelligence, organized crime, and major crimes. He will eventually be promoted to inspector in 2017, then appointed as deputy director in 2023 for financial crimes and cybercrime. His professional career was marked by several high-profile cases, including Operation DANSEUR, which he led in 2014 to track down three fugitive murderers who had escaped from the Quebec City detention center by helicopter. In April 2025, he was one of the architects of Project NOVA, involved in a vast global operation aimed at neutralizing fraudulent users of the LabHost cybercrime platform. In addition to his career as a police officer, Charles Hudon has been a lecturer at UQTR for more than a decade; he also served as a lecturer at Ellis College in Drummondville from 2005 to 2015. His commitment to education reflects his interest in young people and the next generation, which are at the heart of his priorities. Charles Hudon is actively involved in his community, having volunteered on the parent committees at Académie Saint-Louis for over 11 years, in addition to serving on its board of directors. He also volunteers as a transporter for Transplant Québec. A distinguished police officer, he was awarded the Police Medal for his service in February 2019 and received the King Charles III Coronation Medal in 2024, presented by the Lieutenant Governor, for his commitment as an aide-de-camp and ambassador for the institution.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Karoline Boucher

    Karoline Boucher

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
27.9 pts
Turnout
73.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mario Asselin Elected CAQ 20,812 47.4
Donald Gagnon PCQ 8,572 19.5
William Duquette PQ 5,741 13.1
Karoline Boucher QS 5,337 12.2
Karl Filion QLP 2,760 6.3
Mathieu Guillemette Other 282 0.6
Kadidia Mahamane Bamba Other 266 0.6
Jean Cloutier Other 148 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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