Riding profile
Vanier-Les Rivières
The question
Vanier-Les Rivières: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Vanier-Les Rivières, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mario Asselin
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PLQ Challenger Charles Hudon
source ↗
Current forecast
CAQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 95%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 81%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PCQ | PQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVanier-Les Rivières | 28.6% | 25.3% | 22.6% | 13.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 20.3% +8.3 | 13.2% +12.1 | 30.1% −7.4 | 27.2% −14.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Asselin Elected | CAQ | 20,812 | 47.4 | — |
| Donald Gagnon | PCQ | 8,572 | 19.5 | — |
| William Duquette | PQ | 5,741 | 13.1 | — |
| Karoline Boucher | QS | 5,337 | 12.2 | — |
| Karl Filion | PLQ | 2,760 | 6.3 | — |
| Mathieu Guillemette | Other | 282 | 0.6 | — |
| Kadidia Mahamane Bamba | Other | 266 | 0.6 | — |
| Jean Cloutier | Other | 148 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026