Riding profile
Vanier-Les Rivières
The question
Vanier-Les Rivières: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
CAQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 73%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.8
- P(close race)
- 98%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| CAQ | PCQ | PQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVanier-Les Rivières | 27.7% | 26.4% | 24.1% | 13.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 21.3% +6.4 | 16.1% +10.3 | 27.9% −3.8 | 23.4% −9.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Vanier-Les Rivières, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mario Asselin
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Françoise Faverjon-Fortin
Corporate director, strategic advisor, and former CEO, Françoise Faverjon-Fortin has over 25 years of experience in governance and senior management, notably as chair and vice-chair of boards of directors. Former president and CEO of MedicAlert Canada and senior executive at Export Development Canada, she draws on recognized expertise in international business, financing, corporate risk management, and the infrastructure sector. A career that has enabled her to build an extensive network of professional relationships both in Canada and internationally. Very committed to the development of female leadership and mentoring for the next generation, she has notably held several governance positions within the International Women's Forum (IWF Canada and IWF Global) and contributed to major international strategic initiatives. A contribution that earned her the title of Visionary Leader from IWF Global. She holds a Bachelor of Business Administration, with a concentration in marketing, from Université Laval, and an MBA in finance awarded with distinction from the State University of New York. She has continued her training at several renowned institutions in executive leadership. Recognized for her sound judgment and strategic vision, Françoise Faverjon-Fortin also stands out for her influence in governance. In addition to having served for 13 years on the board of directors of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at UQAM, she has been a member of the Institute of Corporate Directors since 2005 and is among the first five Quebecers to have obtained the Canadian Directors Education Program designation.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Marjorie Villeneuve
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger
Patrick Paquet
Patrick Paquet is a businessperson with more than 30 years of entrepreneurial experience. He first made his mark in the video-store business, owning five locations for 18 years. He then continued his entrepreneurial career by owning two dek hockey centres in the Quebec City region—Dekhockey Beauport and Dek Beauce—which he operated for 15 years. Passionate about cinema and dek hockey and deeply involved in his community, he also took part in municipal politics from 2005 to 2025. Elected three times, he devoted 15 years to active politics, including three years as second opposition leader at Quebec City Hall, building a strong reputation as an experienced politician. A municipal-politics commentator at CHOI Radio X, father of two and passionate communicator, Patrick Paquet is known for his outspokenness, analytical mind and ability to meet challenges with determination. Whether as an entrepreneur, elected official or commentator, he puts his experience and leadership at the service of citizens and the projects he cares about.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger
Stéphanie Martin
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger
Charles Hudon
A native of Jonquière, Charles Hudon has lived in the Lebourgneuf neighborhood in the Vanier–Les Rivières riding since 2014. Until recently, he served as deputy director of the Criminal Investigations Division (financial crimes and cybercrime) at the Sûreté du Québec. Charles Hudon holds a master’s degree in administration from the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), in collaboration with the École nationale de police du Québec, and has nearly 28 years of experience with the Sûreté du Québec. His career has taken him into several areas: local law enforcement, human resources, strategic management, and major criminal investigations. Having begun his career as a patrol officer in the Saguenay Fjord and Lotbinière RCMs, he rose through the ranks of Quebec’s largest police force, working in areas such as criminal intelligence, organized crime, and major crimes. He will eventually be promoted to inspector in 2017, then appointed as deputy director in 2023 for financial crimes and cybercrime. His professional career was marked by several high-profile cases, including Operation DANSEUR, which he led in 2014 to track down three fugitive murderers who had escaped from the Quebec City detention center by helicopter. In April 2025, he was one of the architects of Project NOVA, involved in a vast global operation aimed at neutralizing fraudulent users of the LabHost cybercrime platform. In addition to his career as a police officer, Charles Hudon has been a lecturer at UQTR for more than a decade; he also served as a lecturer at Ellis College in Drummondville from 2005 to 2015. His commitment to education reflects his interest in young people and the next generation, which are at the heart of his priorities. Charles Hudon is actively involved in his community, having volunteered on the parent committees at Académie Saint-Louis for over 11 years, in addition to serving on its board of directors. He also volunteers as a transporter for Transplant Québec. A distinguished police officer, he was awarded the Police Medal for his service in February 2019 and received the King Charles III Coronation Medal in 2024, presented by the Lieutenant Governor, for his commitment as an aide-de-camp and ambassador for the institution.
source ↗ -
QS Challenger
Karoline Boucher
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Asselin Elected | CAQ | 20,812 | 47.4 | — |
| Donald Gagnon | PCQ | 8,572 | 19.5 | — |
| William Duquette | PQ | 5,741 | 13.1 | — |
| Karoline Boucher | QS | 5,337 | 12.2 | — |
| Karl Filion | QLP | 2,760 | 6.3 | — |
| Mathieu Guillemette | Other | 282 | 0.6 | — |
| Kadidia Mahamane Bamba | Other | 266 | 0.6 | — |
| Jean Cloutier | Other | 148 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026