Riding profile
Montmorency
The question
Montmorency: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?
Current forecast
PCQ
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.2
- P(close race)
- 28%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PCQ | CAQ | PQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMontmorency | 32.7% | 26.5% | 21.5% | 11.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 16.1% +16.5 | 21.3% +5.2 | 27.9% −6.4 | 23.4% −11.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Montmorency, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Jean-François Simard
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Incumbent 
Jean-François Simard
Jean-François Simard is a founding member of the CAQ and was elected as the Member of Parliament for Montmorency in 2018. He also served as a Member of Parliament from 1998 to 2003, and as Deputy Minister of the government at that time.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Renaud Blais
source ↗ - PCQ Challenger
Marie-Josée Hélie
Expert in food autonomy, Marie-Josée Hélie possesses solid political experience acquired through electoral campaigns at both provincial and federal levels. Spokesperson for the Parti conservateur du Québec on Identity and Culture, she is guided by values of resilience, responsibility and transmission to future generations. Established for several years on a self-sufficient farm in Anticosti, Marie-Josée wishes to represent the citizens of Montmorency with proximity and authenticity. She defends concrete solutions to support families, strengthen food autonomy, protect Quebec's identity and culture and promote responsible management of public finances in order to build a more prosperous Quebec.
source ↗ -
PQ Challenger 
Nathalie Gagnon
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger 
René-Paul Coly
A resident of Montmorency since 2001, René-Paul knows his community deeply and has been involved there for many years. Trained in accounting, he joined the Quebec government in 2009, where he still works as a specialized resource, in addition to being responsible for the Entraide campaign within his organization. Ambassador and spokesperson for the Association pour l'encadrement des jeunes sportifs (APEJS), which supports young people in sport and academic success, René-Paul is also involved with numerous organizations in his community. He is among the initiators of the Conseil panafricain de Québec (COPAQ) and currently sits on its board of directors. His commitment has also led him to work with the Société de Saint-Vincent-de-Paul, the Association de soccer de Beauport, the Fondation des maladies du cœur, and the Club Lions des Rivières. From the Guignolée to the distribution of Christmas baskets, through the Christmas dinner for the visually impaired of Caecitas, René-Paul is always there to give back to his community. × I commit to voting for René-Paul Coly as deputy in the constituency of Montmorency
source ↗ -
QS Challenger 
Annie-Pierre Bélanger
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-François Simard Elected | CAQ | 19,124 | 45.2 | — |
| Mylene Bouchard | PCQ | 11,031 | 26.1 | — |
| Annie-Pierre Bélanger | QS | 5,100 | 12.1 | — |
| Cynthia Therrien | PQ | 4,773 | 11.3 | — |
| Mustapha Berri | QLP | 1,969 | 4.7 | — |
| Nicholas Lescarbeau | Other | 274 | 0.7 | — |
| Jean Bédard | Other | 55 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026