Riding profile
Montmorency
The question
Montmorency: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Montmorency, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jean-François Simard
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent 
Jean-François Simard
Jean-François Simard is a founding member of the CAQ and was elected as the Member of Parliament for Montmorency in 2018. He also served as a Member of Parliament from 1998 to 2003, and as Deputy Minister of the government at that time.
source ↗
Current forecast
PCQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 89%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 90%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PCQ | CAQ | PQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMontmorency | 31.5% | 29.1% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 13.2% +18.4 | 20.3% +8.8 | 30.1% −10.1 | 27.2% −17.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-François Simard Elected | CAQ | 19,124 | 45.2 | — |
| Mylene Bouchard | PCQ | 11,031 | 26.1 | — |
| Annie-Pierre Bélanger | QS | 5,100 | 12.1 | — |
| Cynthia Therrien | PQ | 4,773 | 11.3 | — |
| Mustapha Berri | PLQ | 1,969 | 4.7 | — |
| Nicholas Lescarbeau | Other | 274 | 0.7 | — |
| Jean Bédard | Other | 55 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026