Riding profile

Côte-du-Sud

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Côte-du-Sud: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PCQ

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
61%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 29.2%

    Frédéric Poulin

  • CAQ 26.5%

    Mathieu Rivest incumbent

  • PQ 24.3%

    Valérie Hamel

  • QLP 13.9%

    Nancy St-Pierre

  • QS 5.7%

    Jordan Veillette

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ QLP
HereCôte-du-Sud 29.2%26.5%24.3%13.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +13.0 21.3% +5.2 27.9% −3.6 23.4% −9.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Côte-du-Sud, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mathieu Rivest

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Mathieu Rivest

    Mathieu Rivest

    Whether as a manager, educator, musician, conductor or volunteer, Mathieu Rivest is fully committed to the Côte-du-Sud riding, and so for over 25 years. As General Manager of the Saint-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska Music Camp, he recently received the Master Craftsman 2022 award, presented by the Quebec Camp Industry, in recognition of his expertise in cultural management.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Frédéric Poulin

    Frédéric Poulin

    Frédéric Poulin is an agricultural producer and entrepreneur in Saint-Antoine-de-l'Isle-aux-Grues, where he has directed a dairy operation since 2003. A former mayor of his municipality, he possesses solid experience in management, governance, and regional development. His background makes him a ground-level man well-versed in the realities of families, entrepreneurs, and the agricultural sector. He serves as spokesperson on agriculture matters. Frédéric wishes to represent the citizens of Côte-du-Sud with proximity, pragmatism, and determination. He advocates for concrete solutions to support agriculture, promote regional development, reduce the tax and regulatory burden, and contribute to a strong economy for the benefit of families and businesses.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Valérie Hamel

    Valérie Hamel

    Valérie Hamel holds bachelor's and thesis-based master's degrees in nursing from the Université du Québec à Rimouski, a professional master's degree as an IPSPL from the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, and a Master II in therapeutic patient education from Aix-Marseille University. She is currently pursuing a doctorate in nursing at Rimouski. Her clinical experience taught her that citizens need effective institutions close to their realities, grounded in local expertise, inclusion, and participation, while recognizing the essential contribution of support staff and care, health, and social-service professionals.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Nancy St-Pierre

    Nancy St-Pierre

    A native of Sainte-Hélène-de-Kamouraska, Nancy St-Pierre is deeply rooted in her region. As the daughter of entrepreneurs, she developed a sense of service, management, and commitment at a very early age while working in the family business in Saint-Pascal. With a degree in administrative techniques, specializing in finance, she has built a career spanning more than 25 years in the fields of financial services, accounting, and economic development, notably with the Desjardins Group and Farm Credit Canada. Her professional experience has also enabled her to support numerous businesses, particularly in the agricultural sector. Her commitment to her community is equally remarkable. A school board member for nearly fifteen years and a city council member before being elected mayor of Saint-Joseph-de-Kamouraska in 2017, Nancy St-Pierre has always chosen to get involved where she could make a tangible difference. She has also devoted many years to volunteering with organizations in her community and has been actively involved in municipal and regional affairs. As the wife of a dairy farmer and co-owner of a family-run maple syrup farm, she has firsthand knowledge of the realities faced by farmers, entrepreneurs, and families in rural areas. Her experience with the Fédération québécoise des municipalités Assurances has also allowed her to develop expertise on issues related to land use and community development. Driven by the values of community, transparency, and hard work, Nancy St-Pierre now hopes to put her experience to work for the citizens of Côte-du-Sud in order to advocate for the region’s priorities and contribute to its economic and social development.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Jordan Veillette

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
24.3 pts
Turnout
68.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu Rivest Elected CAQ 16,116 47.7
Frédéric Poulin PCQ 7,910 23.4
Michel Forget PQ 4,316 12.8
Guillaume Dufour QS 3,154 9.3
Sylvain Lemieux QLP 2,132 6.3
Sylvain Cloutier Other 164 0.5
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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