Riding profile
Côte-du-Sud
The question
Côte-du-Sud: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PCQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 55%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 61%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PCQ | CAQ | PQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCôte-du-Sud | 29.2% | 26.5% | 24.3% | 13.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 16.1% +13.0 | 21.3% +5.2 | 27.9% −3.6 | 23.4% −9.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Côte-du-Sud, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mathieu Rivest
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Incumbent
Mathieu Rivest
Whether as a manager, educator, musician, conductor or volunteer, Mathieu Rivest is fully committed to the Côte-du-Sud riding, and so for over 25 years. As General Manager of the Saint-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska Music Camp, he recently received the Master Craftsman 2022 award, presented by the Quebec Camp Industry, in recognition of his expertise in cultural management.
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PCQ Challenger
Frédéric Poulin
Frédéric Poulin is an agricultural producer and entrepreneur in Saint-Antoine-de-l'Isle-aux-Grues, where he has directed a dairy operation since 2003. A former mayor of his municipality, he possesses solid experience in management, governance, and regional development. His background makes him a ground-level man well-versed in the realities of families, entrepreneurs, and the agricultural sector. He serves as spokesperson on agriculture matters. Frédéric wishes to represent the citizens of Côte-du-Sud with proximity, pragmatism, and determination. He advocates for concrete solutions to support agriculture, promote regional development, reduce the tax and regulatory burden, and contribute to a strong economy for the benefit of families and businesses.
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PQ Challenger
Valérie Hamel
Valérie Hamel holds bachelor's and thesis-based master's degrees in nursing from the Université du Québec à Rimouski, a professional master's degree as an IPSPL from the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, and a Master II in therapeutic patient education from Aix-Marseille University. She is currently pursuing a doctorate in nursing at Rimouski. Her clinical experience taught her that citizens need effective institutions close to their realities, grounded in local expertise, inclusion, and participation, while recognizing the essential contribution of support staff and care, health, and social-service professionals.
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QLP Challenger
Nancy St-Pierre
A native of Sainte-Hélène-de-Kamouraska, Nancy St-Pierre is deeply rooted in her region. As the daughter of entrepreneurs, she developed a sense of service, management, and commitment at a very early age while working in the family business in Saint-Pascal. With a degree in administrative techniques, specializing in finance, she has built a career spanning more than 25 years in the fields of financial services, accounting, and economic development, notably with the Desjardins Group and Farm Credit Canada. Her professional experience has also enabled her to support numerous businesses, particularly in the agricultural sector. Her commitment to her community is equally remarkable. A school board member for nearly fifteen years and a city council member before being elected mayor of Saint-Joseph-de-Kamouraska in 2017, Nancy St-Pierre has always chosen to get involved where she could make a tangible difference. She has also devoted many years to volunteering with organizations in her community and has been actively involved in municipal and regional affairs. As the wife of a dairy farmer and co-owner of a family-run maple syrup farm, she has firsthand knowledge of the realities faced by farmers, entrepreneurs, and families in rural areas. Her experience with the Fédération québécoise des municipalités Assurances has also allowed her to develop expertise on issues related to land use and community development. Driven by the values of community, transparency, and hard work, Nancy St-Pierre now hopes to put her experience to work for the citizens of Côte-du-Sud in order to advocate for the region’s priorities and contribute to its economic and social development.
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QS Challenger Jordan Veillette
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Rivest Elected | CAQ | 16,116 | 47.7 | — |
| Frédéric Poulin | PCQ | 7,910 | 23.4 | — |
| Michel Forget | PQ | 4,316 | 12.8 | — |
| Guillaume Dufour | QS | 3,154 | 9.3 | — |
| Sylvain Lemieux | QLP | 2,132 | 6.3 | — |
| Sylvain Cloutier | Other | 164 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026