Riding profile

Jonquière

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Jonquière: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Editorial read

Jonquière, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 48% vote share, against 33% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yannick Gagnon

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Yannick Gagnon

    Yannick Gagnon

    Proud resident of Jonquière and a leading figure in Jonquière, Yannick is the youngest general director appointed to Canada in the history of Patro, where he has worked for 15 years. A key player in his region's community sector, he contributes directly to its development.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jimmy Bouchard

    Jimmy Bouchard

    A civil engineering technician by training, Jimmy served as a municipal councillor for the City of Saguenay from 2019 to 2025. During his career, he taught civil engineering at Cégep de Chicoutimi and also sat on the boards of directors of the Corporation régionale du Lac Kénogami, Société de Transport de Saguenay, and Conseil des Arts de Saguenay.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 47.9%
  • CAQ 32.7%
  • PCQ 9.6%
  • PLQ 7.3%
  • QS 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ PLQ
HereJonquière 47.9%32.7%9.6%7.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +17.9 20.3% +12.4 13.2% −3.5 27.2% −19.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
40.1 pts
Turnout
68.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yannick Gagnon Elected CAQ 18,196 59.4 —
Caroline Dubé PQ 5,912 19.3 —
Isabelle Champagne PCQ 2,926 9.6 —
Karla Cynthia Garcia Martinez QS 2,778 9.1 —
Wilda Solon PLQ 648 2.1 —
Line Bélanger Other 177 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026