Riding profile

Jonquière

Provincial riding — QC · Rural · rest

The question

Jonquière: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 40.5%

    Jimmy Bouchard

  • CAQ 29.1%

    Yannick Gagnon incumbent

  • PCQ 13.7%

    Yannick Pelletier

  • QLP 10.9%

    Wilda Solon

  • QS 5.3%

    Serge Bergeron

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereJonquière 40.5%29.1%13.7%10.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +12.6 21.3% +7.9 16.1% −2.5 23.4% −12.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Jonquière, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 41% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yannick Gagnon

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Yannick Gagnon

    Yannick Gagnon

    Proud resident of Jonquière and a leading figure in Jonquière, Yannick is the youngest general director appointed to Canada in the history of Patro, where he has worked for 15 years. A key player in his region's community sector, he contributes directly to its development.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Yannick Pelletier

    Yannick Pelletier

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jimmy Bouchard

    Jimmy Bouchard

    A civil engineering technician by training, Jimmy served as a municipal councillor for the City of Saguenay from 2019 to 2025. During his career, he taught civil engineering at Cégep de Chicoutimi and also sat on the boards of directors of the Corporation régionale du Lac Kénogami, Société de Transport de Saguenay, and Conseil des Arts de Saguenay.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Wilda Solon

    Wilda Solon

    A candidate in Jonquière in 2022, Wilda is launching a second campaign in the riding. Through this first experience, she had the opportunity to meet many citizens and listen to their concerns. An entrepreneur and administrative assistant, she has experience in coordination and politics. Trained in digital marketing management, she is also pursuing a certification in artificial intelligence. Her background gives her a solid understanding of the reality of self-employed workers and small businesses that bring life to our neighborhoods, commercial streets, and communities. × I commit to voting for Wilda Solon as MP in the riding of Jonquière

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Serge Bergeron

    Serge Bergeron

    Serge Bergeron knows the health sector's realities and wants to fight for better access to care. During a 35-year career in the network, he was a physician, manager in CIUSSS, CISSS, and CRSSS organizations, and medical teacher. Especially attuned to regional realities, he spent part of his career working with Indigenous peoples and witnessed persistent glaring inequalities in the health system. He is entering politics with a simple yet ambitious conviction: Quebecers deserve public services that truly work.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
40.1 pts
Turnout
68.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yannick Gagnon Elected CAQ 18,196 59.4 —
Caroline Dubé PQ 5,912 19.3 —
Isabelle Champagne PCQ 2,926 9.6 —
Karla Cynthia Garcia Martinez QS 2,778 9.1 —
Wilda Solon QLP 648 2.1 —
Line Bélanger Other 177 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026