Riding profile

Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
73%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
58%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 30.6%

    François Gariépy

  • CAQ 26.2%

    Kariane Bourassa incumbent

  • PCQ 24.3%

    Caroline Simard

  • QLP 11.7%

    Michel Bureau

  • QS 6.9%

    Dulce Vivar

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereCharlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 30.6%26.2%24.3%11.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +2.7 21.3% +4.9 16.1% +8.2 23.4% −11.7

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kariane Bourassa

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Kariane Bourassa

    Kariane Bourassa

    Kariane Bourassa has nearly 15 years of experience in the media field. She notably became known to the general public on TVA Nouvelles.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Mario Desjardins Pelchat

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Caroline Simard

    Caroline Simard

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    François Gariépy

    François Gariépy

    A journalist who worked at several radio stations, including CHOI Radio X, and at Voir magazine, François Gariépy spent countless hours covering public-funds waste and resulting scandals. He believes public services must be restored by reducing bureaucracy, waste, and unnecessary controls and easing regulations that stifle society. He knows Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré's realities and wants to represent its people; the Mont-Sainte-Anne file illustrates the CAQ's monumental failure.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Michel Bureau

    Michel Bureau

    For nearly 50 years, Michel has been active in the media world, from print press to radio and television. He began his career in 1976 at the Journal Sport illustré, before contributing notably to Pop-Rock magazine, the Guide de Montréal-Nord, the Hebdos Transcontinental, and the Super Hebdo de Quebecor. He then continued his career in radio, notably at CKLM, as well as in television, as host and producer of variety and public affairs programs. Michel knows Charlevoix particularly well. He notably worked there as a journalist at Le Charlevoisien, where he covered municipal life, regional development, and local realities. × I commit to voting for Michel Bureau as deputy in the constituency of Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Dulce Vivar

    Dulce Vivar

    Dulce Vivar is a professional and activist deeply committed to social justice and equal opportunity. Her sustained work with communities supports her desire to build a more solidaristic and equitable Quebec. Trained in political science at Université de Montréal and working in territorial development, she takes a humane, pragmatic, and unifying approach to living conditions, access to public services, and civic participation. She wants to represent Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré residents in the National Assembly and help establish concrete solutions improving everyone's daily lives.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
30.1 pts
Turnout
70.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.1 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kariane Bourassa Elected CAQ 17,979 48.2
Odré Lacombe PCQ 6,763 18.1
Lucien Rodrigue PQ 6,041 16.2
Myriam Fortin QS 4,677 12.5
Michel Bureau QLP 1,756 4.7
Stefany Tremblay Other 106 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026