Riding profile

Bellechasse

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Bellechasse: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?

Current forecast

PCQ

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
18.9
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 45.0%

    Éric Duhaime

  • CAQ 25.9%

    Stéphanie Lachance incumbent

  • PQ 15.3%

    Jérôme Couture

  • QLP 9.6%

    Richard Garon

  • QS 3.7%

    Raphaël Bédard

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ QLP
HereBellechasse 45.0%25.9%15.3%9.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +28.9 21.3% +4.6 27.9% −12.5 23.4% −13.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Bellechasse, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 45% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stéphanie Lachance

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Stéphanie Lachance

    Stéphanie Lachance

    Passionate about education and entrepreneurship, Stéphanie Lachance worked for 10 years at various publishing houses in schools, and 8 years within a specialized firm in recruitment, evaluation, and succession planning for companies in Chaudière-Appalaches. Parliamentary assistant to the Minister of Family since being elected as the Member of Parliament for Bellechasse in 2018, she supports him in addressing the daycare space deficit.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Éric Duhaime

    Éric Duhaime

    Éric Duhaime has been leader of the Parti conservateur du Québec since 2021. Originally from Laval, he holds a degree in political science from Université de Montréal and a master's degree in public administration from ENAP. Before becoming a political leader, he worked as a political adviser at provincial and federal levels, an international consultant in democratic development, and then as a radio host and political commentator. Under his leadership, the Parti conservateur du Québec has experienced significant growth, rising from less than 1% to 13% of votes in the 2022 general election and now bringing together tens of thousands of members. Author of several works, including *Destination Autonomie*, he champions a vision of a more autonomous Quebec, with a more efficient state, reduced taxation, greater individual freedom, and improved purchasing power for Quebec families.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jérôme Couture

    Jérôme Couture

    A political scientist with a doctorate from Université Laval, Jérôme Couture teaches public finance and taxation there. He has nearly 20 years of expertise in public policy, municipal affairs, and infrastructure and transit financing. A transport-ministry analyst who led major files, he combines eight years as an elected municipal official with recognized university and government expertise. He is motivated by the conviction that Quebecers' entrepreneurial spirit deserves to express itself within a self-governing nation.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Richard Garon

    Richard Garon

    Richard Garon holds a doctorate in political science from Université Laval and degrees from Collège militaire royal de Saint-Jean and the Royal Military College of Canada. He has nearly 40 years of experience in the Canadian Armed Forces, with command and leadership responsibilities in Canada and abroad, developing recognized expertise in leadership, management and governance. For seven years he has worked in the private sector as a regional manager for Canadian company Calian. He is also an associate researcher at ENAP's Chair in Public-Sector Leadership and at the Royal Military College of Saint-Jean's research chair on reserve forces, studying leadership, public administration, security and community resilience. Deeply rooted in Chaudière-Appalaches, he knows the region's families, entrepreneurs, farmers and municipalities. He wants to put his experience at Bellechasse citizens' service and bring citizens closer to public institutions.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Raphaël Bédard

    Raphaël Bédard

    Raphaël Bédard is running in Bellechasse to bring a voice grounded in local realities. Active locally to improve people's lives, he chaired the Cégep de Lévis student association and ran as an independent candidate in La Durantaye's municipal election. Since 2025, he has worked in the community sector and organized activities to combat social isolation. This thirst for social justice and desire to create community connections led him to represent Québec solidaire to Bellechasse residents.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
10.5 pts
Turnout
73.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphanie Lachance Elected CAQ 15,065 45.7
Michel Tardif PCQ 11,612 35.3
Jean-Daniel Fontaine PQ 2,908 8.8
Jérôme D'Auteuil Sirois QS 1,988 6.0
François Bégin QLP 1,360 4.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026