Riding profile

Beauce-Nord

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Beauce-Nord: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?

Current forecast

PCQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.2
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 48.3%

    Patricia Drouin

  • CAQ 28.0%

    Philippe Simard

  • PQ 11.7%

    Éric Gagnon Poulin

  • QLP 8.3%

    Nancy Labbé

  • QS 3.4%

    Julie Dionne

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ QLP
HereBeauce-Nord 48.3%28.0%11.7%8.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +32.1 21.3% +6.7 27.9% −16.2 23.4% −15.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Beauce-Nord, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 48% vote share, against 28% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Luc Provençal

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Philippe Simard

    Philippe Simard

    Originally from Beauceville and now based in Sainte-Marie, Philippe Simard is deeply attached to Beauce and its communities. His family has in fact been known and present in Beauce for several generations. He wishes to put his political experience, his values, his knowledge of the field and his capacity for action at the service of the people of Beauce-Nord. He is recognized as a results-oriented, pragmatic and accessible person. He served as political attaché in the office of the MNA for Beauce-Nord, Mr. Luc Provençal. This close-up experience allowed him to develop a concrete knowledge of the territory, its stakeholders and the specific priorities of the various municipalities of Beauce-Nord. He is currently a political advisor in the cabinet of the Minister of Health, Ms. Sonia Bélanger.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Patricia Drouin

    Patricia Drouin

    Native of Vallée-Jonction and mother of two children, Patricia Drouin is deeply attached to the values of work, mutual aid, and perseverance that characterize Beauce. Her career path is that of an engaged woman who believes in the potential of her region and the importance of building a promising future for local families.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Éric Gagnon Poulin

    Éric Gagnon Poulin

    A socio-economic anthropologist and executive director of Groupe de ressources techniques Nouvel-Habitat, Éric Gagnon Poulin is entering politics to serve the people of Beauce. An expert on social-inequality issues, he has a nuanced understanding of the impact of public policies on the cost of living. His expertise in housing also allows him to understand every aspect of the housing crisis. He wants to put these two priority issues at the centre of his election campaign. "The people of Beauce can count on me to represent their voice by appealing to their intelligence and to work with them to find solutions to the problems they face. I want to put my expertise at the service of Beauce's interests, particularly in housing and the cost of living, while also ensuring sound economic development for our SMEs. Only the Parti Québécois will offer a truly streamlined business environment for our entrepreneurs."

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Nancy Labbé

    Nancy Labbé

    A native of Sainte-Marie, in the Beauce region, Nancy Labbé currently serves as Executive Director and Clerk-Treasurer of the MRC de La Nouvelle-Beauce, a position she has held since 2022. She has been involved in the development of her region for many years and previously served for seven years as executive director of the La Nouvelle-Beauce Chamber of Commerce and Industry. In that role, she received the prestigious Jean-Paul-Létourneau Award, presented to the Executive of the Year by the Quebec Chamber of Commerce Network. Nancy Labbé has also worked as a counselor at the Maison de la Famille in La Nouvelle-Beauce. Over the years, she has served on several boards of directors and regional organizations, including Cégep Beauce-Appalaches, the Polydon Foundation at Polyvalente Benoît-Vachon, and the Cégep Beauce-Appalaches Foundation. By running as a candidate for the Quebec Liberal Party in Beauce-Nord, she hopes to continue her commitment to the people of her region—this time on the provincial political stage—in order to defend the interests of the citizens of Beauce-Nord. A respected leader with deep roots in her community, Nancy Labbé aims to provide a strong, accessible, and effective voice for the constituents of her district. Over the coming weeks, she will meet with residents, businesses, farmers, community organizations, and municipalities to develop a regional platform grounded in the realities of the area. Among the issues that are particularly close to his heart are access to health care and family doctors, affordable housing, infrastructure, relations with municipalities and RCMs, as well as the region’s economic and agricultural development. These priorities are also central to the commitments of QLP leader Charles Milliard, who considers them essential to improving the daily lives of Quebecers.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Julie Dionne

    Julie Dionne

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
0.6 pts
Turnout
77.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Luc Provençal Elected CAQ 14,590 43.4
Olivier Dumais PCQ 14,388 42.8
Paméla Lavoie-Savard PQ 1,994 5.9
François Jacques-Côté QS 1,522 4.5
Clermont Rouleau QLP 951 2.8
Gwendoline Mathieu-Poulin Other 146 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026