Riding profile
Beauce-Nord
The question
Beauce-Nord: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?
Editorial read
Beauce-Nord, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 51% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Luc Provençal
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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PCQ Challenger 
Patricia Drouin
Native of Vallée-Jonction and mother of two children, Patricia Drouin is deeply attached to the values of work, mutual aid, and perseverance that characterize Beauce. Her career path is that of an engaged woman who believes in the potential of her region and the importance of building a promising future for local families.
source ↗ -
PLQ Challenger Nancy Labbé
source ↗
Current forecast
PCQ
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PCQ | CAQ | PQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBeauce-Nord | 50.6% | 28.9% | 12.0% | 5.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 13.2% +37.4 | 20.3% +8.6 | 30.1% −18.0 | 27.2% −21.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luc Provençal Elected | CAQ | 14,590 | 43.4 | — |
| Olivier Dumais | PCQ | 14,388 | 42.8 | — |
| Paméla Lavoie-Savard | PQ | 1,994 | 5.9 | — |
| François Jacques-Côté | QS | 1,522 | 4.5 | — |
| Clermont Rouleau | PLQ | 951 | 2.8 | — |
| Gwendoline Mathieu-Poulin | Other | 146 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026