Riding profile

Lotbinière-Frontenac

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · qcc

The question

Lotbinière-Frontenac: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?

Current forecast

PCQ

Competitive

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
11.5
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 37.5%

    Renaud Labrecque

  • CAQ 25.5%

    Roch Gamache

  • PQ 18.4%

    Jonathan Moreau

  • QLP 12.8%

    Ludovic Beauregard

  • QS 5.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ CAQ PQ QLP
HereLotbinière-Frontenac 37.5%25.5%18.4%12.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +21.3 21.3% +4.2 27.9% −9.5 23.4% −10.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Lotbinière-Frontenac, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 37% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Isabelle Lecours

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Roch Gamache

    Roch Gamache

    A senior manager and consulting expert specialized in industrial and governmental affairs, Roch Gamache is deeply rooted in Lotbinière-Frontenac, where his family has been established for several generations. Recognized for his leadership, insight and operational skills, he has developed solid management competencies in both the public and private sectors, while actively engaging in the community. Trained in political science and communications, he began his career in international market development. For nearly 10 years, he was entrusted with leading numerous trade missions abroad, which allowed him to develop expertise in market development and business relations. He subsequently held cabinet director positions in several ministries, including Tourism, Cybersecurity and Digital, as well as Forests, Wildlife and Parks. Since 2026, he has been putting his know-how at the service of the Premier's cabinet as director of state efficiency and digital integration.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Charles-Eugène Bergeron

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Renaud Labrecque

    Renaud Labrecque

    For nearly a decade, Renaud has worked in the municipal sector, including five years as general manager. This experience allowed him to acquire solid expertise in public management, notably recognized by receiving the 2024 Excellence in Training Award from the Association of Municipal Directors of Quebec.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jonathan Moreau

    Jonathan Moreau

    Mayor of Saint-Apollinaire since 2021, Jonathan has a thorough knowledge of the issues and challenges of the riding of Lotbinière-Frontenac. His experience in municipal politics, including twelve years as a municipal councillor, has allowed him to gauge the weight of the Quebec bureaucratic apparatus. Our candidate believes that Quebec is over-bureaucratized, which prevents real regional autonomy. In his view, government administration is slow and opaque, and the paperwork is too heavy. If he is joining our team, it is because he wishes to take part in a decentralization of the Quebec State in order to make it more effective. The man who also held the position of vice-president of the Fondation du Cégep de Thetford et de Lotbinière has a particular attachment to his region. He wishes to serve the interests of the population of Lotbinière-Frontenac. “I am a hands-on person who really likes the people from here. My involvement has always aimed to improve their daily lives. As a member of the National Assembly, I want to listen to people and represent them with dignity in order to advance projects that will develop our region.”

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Ludovic Beauregard

    Ludovic Beauregard

    Circular economy commissioner for the MRC des Appalaches and the Société de développement économique de la région de Thetford, Ludovic Beauregard is making the leap into provincial politics to join the ranks of the QLP. Deeply rooted in his home region for many years, Ludovic Beauregard holds a degree in administrative management, as well as specializations in political science and law. Over the years, he has held a variety of positions serving his community, in economic development, entrepreneurship, government relations and municipal affairs. He is the driving force behind the DuGrisAuVert societal initiative, the largest circular economy project in Quebec's history. Under his leadership, marked by his unparalleled dynamism, humanism and ability to mobilize, the MRC des Appalaches has become a veritable laboratory for innovation. Thanks in part to the work of Ludovic Beauregard, the Thetford region, historically distinguished for its mining past, is now a leader in the circular economy in the same sector. By mobilizing local players around the DuGrisAuVert approach, Ludovic Beauregard has helped to create a shared vision, attract the interest of national and international investors, and position the region as a leader in the mining circular economy. He now wishes to put this same capacity for mobilization, innovation and development at the service of the entire Lotbinière-Frontenac riding. His experience in regional development is in line with Quebec Liberal Party leader Charles Milliard's desire to foster the development of Quebec's SMEs, to generate wealth that will ultimately enable the Quebec government to offer quality public services to the population.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
11.5 pts
Turnout
73.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Isabelle Lecours Elected CAQ 18,330 43.7
Christian Gauthier PCQ 13,503 32.2
Christine Gilbert QS 3,925 9.4
Louise Marchand PQ 3,688 8.8
Normand Côté QLP 2,483 5.9
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026