Riding profile
Lotbinière-Frontenac
The question
Lotbinière-Frontenac: will CAQ lose this seat to PCQ?
Editorial read
Lotbinière-Frontenac, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 40% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Isabelle Lecours
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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PCQ Challenger 
Renaud Labrecque
For nearly a decade, Renaud has worked in the municipal sector, including five years as general manager. This experience allowed him to acquire solid expertise in public management, notably recognized by receiving the 2024 Excellence in Training Award from the Association of Municipal Directors of Quebec.
source ↗ -
PLQ Challenger Ludovic Beauregard
source ↗
Current forecast
PCQ
Safe
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.4
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PCQ | CAQ | PQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLotbinière-Frontenac | 39.6% | 26.3% | 20.4% | 9.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 13.2% +26.4 | 20.3% +6.0 | 30.1% −9.7 | 27.2% −17.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Lecours Elected | CAQ | 18,330 | 43.7 | — |
| Christian Gauthier | PCQ | 13,503 | 32.2 | — |
| Christine Gilbert | QS | 3,925 | 9.4 | — |
| Louise Marchand | PQ | 3,688 | 8.8 | — |
| Normand Côté | PLQ | 2,483 | 5.9 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026