Riding profile
Arthabaska-L’Érable
The question
Arthabaska-L’Érable: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Arthabaska-L’Érable, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Quebec Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alex Boissonneault
Sits with PQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
PQ Incumbent 
Alex Boissonneault
Since joining the Parti Québécois team, the journalist and radio host has led files of national importance. He notably defended our party's positions on immigration to ensure that Quebec welcomes a number of immigrants commensurate with its reception capacity.
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger 
Tarek Henoud
Born in Montreal to Lebanese parents, Tarek grew up with values of work, perseverance, and commitment to others. Established in Victoriaville since 2013, he has built his life around his family and community.
source ↗
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.5
- P(close race)
- 99%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | PCQ | CAQ | PLQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereArthabaska-L’Érable | 31.0% | 28.3% | 27.9% | 9.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 30.1% +0.9 | 13.2% +15.1 | 20.3% +7.7 | 27.2% −17.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · QC 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lefebvre Elected | CAQ | 23,447 | 51.8 | — |
| Tarek Henoud | PCQ | 11,187 | 24.7 | — |
| Mario Beauchesne | PQ | 4,538 | 10.0 | — |
| Pascale Fortin | QS | 4,179 | 9.2 | — |
| Luciana Arantes | PLQ | 1,702 | 3.8 | — |
| Trystan Martel | Other | 256 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026