Riding profile

Arthabaska-L’Érable

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Arthabaska-L’Érable: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PCQ

Toss-up

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PCQ 31.5%

    Tarek Henoud

  • PQ 29.9%

    Alex Boissonneault incumbent

  • CAQ 22.0%

    Keven Brasseur

  • QLP 11.9%

    Thomas Guérette

  • QS 4.1%

    Stéphanie Poirier

  • Other 0.5%

    Jonathan Croteau Green Party of Québec

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PCQ PQ CAQ QLP
HereArthabaska-L’Érable 31.5%29.9%22.0%11.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 16.1% +15.4 27.9% +2.0 21.3% +0.8 23.4% −11.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Arthabaska-L’Érable, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Quebec Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 30% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alex Boissonneault

Sits with PQ

Since
2025-08-11
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Incumbent
    Alex Boissonneault

    Alex Boissonneault

    Since joining the Parti Québécois team, the journalist and radio host has led files of national importance. He notably defended our party's positions on immigration to ensure that Quebec welcomes a number of immigrants commensurate with its reception capacity.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Keven Brasseur

    Keven Brasseur

    A chartered professional accountant (CPA) by training, I have been an investment banker serving businesses in Arthabaska-L'Érable for several years. I became involved in the region as president of the Chambre de commerce et d'industrie des Bois-Francs et de l'Érable (CCIBFE) in 2025, while also working with local health organizations. A resident of Princeville, I am very active in local running clubs and Victoriaville's recreational soccer league. From now on, more than ever, I am putting all my rigour and energy at the service of my community.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Jonathan Croteau

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Tarek Henoud

    Tarek Henoud

    Born in Montreal to Lebanese parents, Tarek grew up with values of work, perseverance, and commitment to others. Established in Victoriaville since 2013, he has built his life around his family and community.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger

    Thomas Guérette

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Stéphanie Poirier

    Stéphanie Poirier

    Originally from Victoriaville, Stéphanie Poirier represents a new generation of engaged economists. In her master's in economics, she focuses on social economy and housing affordability. In her studies and professional career, she has always placed empathy and listening at the heart of her commitment. Guided by these humanist and progressive values, she wants to serve Arthabaska-L'Érable and make it fairer, more sustainable, and forward-looking.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
27.2 pts
Turnout
74.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eric Lefebvre Elected CAQ 23,447 51.8 —
Tarek Henoud PCQ 11,187 24.7 —
Mario Beauchesne PQ 4,538 10.0 —
Pascale Fortin QS 4,179 9.2 —
Luciana Arantes QLP 1,702 3.8 —
Trystan Martel Other 256 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026