Riding profile

Champlain

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Champlain: a safe seat for the CAQ?

Editorial read

Champlain, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 37% vote share, against 29% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sonia LeBel

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PLQ Challenger
    Annie Pronovost

    Annie Pronovost

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    René Branchaud

    René Branchaud

    Counsel and practice head of the Business Law group at Lavery. During his career, he has advised numerous companies, which allowed him to develop a keen understanding of the Quebec entrepreneurial ecosystem.

    source ↗

Current forecast

CAQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 36.8%
  • PQ 28.9%
  • PCQ 17.8%
  • PLQ 11.9%
  • QS 4.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ PLQ
HereChamplain 36.8%28.9%17.8%11.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 20.3% +16.5 30.1% −1.2 13.2% +4.6 27.2% −15.3

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
38.3 pts
Turnout
71.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sonia LeBel Elected CAQ 23,513 55.9 —
Steve Massicotte PCQ 7,383 17.6 —
Alexandre Litalien PQ 5,065 12.0 —
Marjolaine Trottier QS 3,775 9.0 —
Jérémy Leblanc PLQ 2,138 5.1 —
Bianca Nancy Pinel Other 194 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026