Riding profile

Champlain

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Champlain: a safe seat for the CAQ?

Current forecast

CAQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.4
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 32.2%

    Marie-Ève Myrand

  • PQ 25.8%

    René Branchaud

  • PCQ 21.8%

    Adriana Szalontai

  • QLP 14.0%

    Annie Pronovost

  • QS 5.8%

    Katherine Heckersbruch

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ QLP
HereChamplain 32.2%25.8%21.8%14.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +10.9 27.9% −2.1 16.1% +5.6 23.4% −9.4

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Champlain, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for the PQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sonia LeBel

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Marie-Ève Myrand

    Marie-Ève Myrand

    Recognized for her strong ability to mobilize and move files forward, Marie-Ève Myrand stands out for her extensive experience in general management and her marked expertise in regional development. At the head of the Association des microbrasseries du Québec for a decade (2016-2026), she previously led the Fédération des coopératives de développement régional du Québec. Her professional background also includes experience in human resources and organizational development, as well as a stint as a research professional at the NSERC Chair for Women in Science and Engineering. Determined and attentive, she is committed to contributing to her community and is actively involved with various organizations. She sits on several boards of directors, including that of the Caisse Desjardins de l'Université Laval, where she served as chair for 12 years, as well as those of the Association québécoise de récupération des contenants de boissons and the Association des microbrasseries canadiennes. Marie-Ève Myrand holds two MBAs, one in management and the other in business administration. She also completed a bachelor's degree in psychology and a graduate microprogram in change management. Her career has earned her several distinctions, including the Prix reconnaissance Jeune dirigeant Desjardins and a place on the Honour Roll of the Faculty of Administration Sciences at Université Laval.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Lionel Bonhomet

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  • Other Challenger

    Martine Ouellet

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  • PCQ Challenger
    Adriana Szalontai

    Adriana Szalontai

    Originally from Romania, Adriana Szalontai studied political and legislative science in England and worked at the British Parliament before settling in Quebec. Drawing on her professional experience and her mandate as a municipal councillor, she wishes to put her expertise and engagement at the service of the citizens of Champlain. Adriana wishes to represent the citizens of Champlain with listening, proximity and pragmatism. She advocates for concrete solutions to support SMEs, reduce bureaucracy, improve access to healthcare, restore purchasing power to families and facilitate access to homeownership.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    René Branchaud

    René Branchaud

    Counsel and practice head of the Business Law group at Lavery. During his career, he has advised numerous companies, which allowed him to develop a keen understanding of the Quebec entrepreneurial ecosystem.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Annie Pronovost

    Annie Pronovost

    Born in Saint-Tite, Annie Pronovost is a compassionate woman who tirelessly dedicates herself to serving others, balancing her work in the public health care system with her political activism. A woman with a hands-on approach, her willingness to make herself available is her hallmark. A nurse by profession, she first ran for city council in 2013. Finishing just four votes short of victory and determined to serve her community, she ran again in 2016 in a special election, where she was elected. The following year, driven by her desire to do even more for the residents of her municipality, she became the first woman in Saint-Tite’s history to be elected mayor. While working full-time as a night shift mental health nurse, she successfully balanced her professional responsibilities with her political duties for nearly eight years, demonstrating her deep dedication to her community. As mayor, she spearheaded several major initiatives for the region, including the drinking water treatment plant project, which remains her greatest source of pride. This experience gave her a firsthand understanding of the challenges associated with infrastructure and their impact on residents. Having gained valuable experience over the years, both in the healthcare sector and in local government, Annie Pronovost understands the realities of the regions and now hopes to represent the citizens of Champlain in the National Assembly.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Katherine Heckersbruch

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
38.3 pts
Turnout
71.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-32.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sonia LeBel Elected CAQ 23,513 55.9
Steve Massicotte PCQ 7,383 17.6
Alexandre Litalien PQ 5,065 12.0
Marjolaine Trottier QS 3,775 9.0
Jérémy Leblanc QLP 2,138 5.1
Bianca Nancy Pinel Other 194 0.5
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026