Riding profile

Nicolet-Bécancour

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Nicolet-Bécancour: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
91%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 30.2%

    Jérôme Gagnon

  • CAQ 26.1%

    Donald Martel incumbent

  • PCQ 25.9%

    Dr Guillaume Langlois

  • QLP 12.4%

    Sophie Martinbeault

  • QS 5.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereNicolet-Bécancour 30.2%26.1%25.9%12.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +2.3 21.3% +4.8 16.1% +9.7 23.4% −11.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nicolet-Bécancour, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Donald Martel

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Donald Martel

    Donald Martel

    Donald Martel was CEO and secretary-treasurer of the Nicolet-Yamaska MRC, as well as CEO of the CLD since 1994, before being elected as Member of Parliament for Nicolet-Bécancour in 2012, 2014, and 2018. Holding a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration, he served as President of the Association of General Managers of Quebec MRCs from 1999 to 2003.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Christian Collard

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Marc-Olivier Billette

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Steve Lauzier

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Dr Guillaume Langlois

    Dr Guillaume Langlois

    Dr Guillaume Langlois is a family physician and has been practicing for over 20 years with the citizens of Nicolet–Bécancour. With extensive experience in primary care medicine, emergency, public health and community care, he is recognized for his commitment to improving access to care, particularly in regions. Spokesperson for the Parti conservateur du Québec on Social Services, he wishes to put his expertise at the service of citizens and contribute to pragmatic reform of the health network. Dr Langlois wishes to represent the citizens of Nicolet–Bécancour with proximity, rigour and determination. He defends concrete solutions to improve access to care and services, support families, seniors, community organizations, SMEs and the agricultural sector, develop infrastructure and tourism, and ensure sustainable and prosperous development of the region.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jérôme Gagnon

    Jérôme Gagnon

    Jérôme Gagnon is a graduate of the École nationale d'administration publique and currently serves as coordinator for economic and tourism development in the City of Nicolet. Rooted in the region for over thirty years, he is involved with several community organizations and notably served as president of the Fondation jeunesse de la DPJ Mauricie et Centre-du-Québec.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Sophie Martinbeault

    Sophie Martinbeault

    A teacher, agricultural entrepreneur, and former municipal official, Sophie Martinbeault is deeply committed to her community. Driven by a passion for sustainable development, education, and the vitality of her community, she puts her expertise to work for the residents of Nicolet-Bécancour. A graduate of the Nicolet School of Agriculture, Sophie has been teaching in vocational education since 2018. She is currently working toward a bachelor’s degree in vocational education and considers education to be an essential pillar of progress, both technologically and on a human level. As a co-owner of an organic vegetable farm, she has developed solid expertise in sustainable agriculture, management, and local development. Over the years, she has traveled throughout the Nicolet-Bécancour riding to meet with numerous producers, workers, and entrepreneurs. These interactions have given her a concrete understanding of the realities of the region while reinforcing her belief that regional vitality depends on making the most of our resources and ensuring better access to healthy, locally produced food. From 2021 to 2024, Sophie was a municipal councillor in Saint-Wenceslas, and also served as deputy mayor. This experience enabled her to gain a concrete understanding of municipal challenges, particularly in the areas of citizen services, infrastructure and regional economic development. Sophie Martinbeault, the Liberal candidate in Nicolet-Bécancour, is now making the leap to the provincial stage, determined to actively contribute to her region’s prosperity and to Quebec’s vitality.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
24.9 pts
Turnout
72.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Donald Martel Elected CAQ 13,956 47.0
Mario Lyonnais PCQ 6,595 22.2
Philippe Dumas PQ 5,095 17.2
Jacques Thériault Watso QS 2,610 8.8
Marie-Josée Jacques QLP 1,406 4.7
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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