Riding profile

Nicolet-Bécancour

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Nicolet-Bécancour: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Nicolet-Bécancour, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for the CAQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Donald Martel

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Donald Martel

    Donald Martel

    Donald Martel was CEO and secretary-treasurer of the Nicolet-Yamaska MRC, as well as CEO of the CLD since 1994, before being elected as Member of Parliament for Nicolet-Bécancour in 2012, 2014, and 2018. Holding a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration, he served as President of the Association of General Managers of Quebec MRCs from 1999 to 2003.

    source ↗
  • PLQ Challenger
    Sophie Martinbeault

    Sophie Martinbeault

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jérôme Gagnon

    Jérôme Gagnon

    Jérôme Gagnon is a graduate of the École nationale d'administration publique and currently serves as coordinator for economic and tourism development in the City of Nicolet. Rooted in the region for over thirty years, he is involved with several community organizations and notably served as president of the Fondation jeunesse de la DPJ Mauricie et Centre-du-Québec.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
74%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 32.1%
  • CAQ 31.4%
  • PCQ 22.3%
  • PLQ 10.3%
  • QS 3.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ PLQ
HereNicolet-Bécancour 32.1%31.4%22.3%10.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +2.0 20.3% +11.1 13.2% +9.2 27.2% −16.9

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
24.9 pts
Turnout
72.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.9 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Donald Martel Elected CAQ 13,956 47.0 —
Mario Lyonnais PCQ 6,595 22.2 —
Philippe Dumas PQ 5,095 17.2 —
Jacques Thériault Watso QS 2,610 8.8 —
Marie-Josée Jacques PLQ 1,406 4.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026