Riding profile

Trois-Rivières

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Trois-Rivières: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
74%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
58%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 32.5%

    Christine Fréchette

  • PQ 29.5%

    Jean Pellerin

  • PCQ 15.0%

    Jonathan Couturier

  • QLP 12.6%

    Valérie Renaud-Martin

  • QS 9.9%

    Steven Roy-Cullen

  • Other 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ QLP
HereTrois-Rivières 32.5%29.5%15.0%12.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +11.2 27.9% +1.6 16.1% −1.1 23.4% −10.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Trois-Rivières, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jean Boulet

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Christine Fréchette

    Christine Fréchette

    Christine Fréchette is the second woman to hold the office of Premier of Quebec. She places the cost of living, innovation, energy transition, and economic development at the heart of her actions, while also promoting Quebec's international profile and strengthening its autonomy.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Béatrice Lafontaine

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Nancy Nadon

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Jonathan Couturier

    Jonathan Couturier

    Originally from the Gaspésie, Jonathan Couturier studied economics at Université Laval before founding the Mariana Distillery. Today a self-employed electromechanics technician and volunteer firefighter, he puts to good use his entrepreneurial background and field experience in the service of the citizens of Trois-Rivières. Jonathan wishes to represent the citizens with proximity, pragmatism and determination. He defends concrete solutions to improve the purchasing power of families, facilitate access to health care, reduce bureaucratic burden and foster an environment conducive to workers, entrepreneurs and economic prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Jean Pellerin

    Jean Pellerin

    With a bachelor's degree in administration (finance) from the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières and a securities-trading course, Jean Pellerin is regional director of a brokerage agency for southeastern Quebec and Mauricie. He has more than 40 years of business-management experience and has been deeply involved in Trois-Rivières and Mauricie. He chaired the Trois-Rivières Chamber of Commerce and Industry in 2020–2021 and was named male personality of the year at the 2023 Gala Radisson. He also chairs Moisson Mauricie/Centre-du-Québec and Centre du Havre and is vice-chair of the Fondation Santé Trois-Rivières. He wants government to trust businesses, public-service workers, and regional actors.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Valérie Renaud-Martin

    Valérie Renaud-Martin

    Valérie Renaud-Martin is a communications professional, radio host, and former municipal official. A lifelong resident of Trois-Rivières, she is deeply rooted in the Mauricie region, where she is known for her authenticity, her thoroughness, and her in-depth knowledge of the region’s priorities. A graduate in communications from the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, she has more than twenty years of experience in the fields of media, education, politics, the environment, and sports. Throughout her career, she has distinguished herself through her ability to explain complex issues in accessible terms, bring citizens together, and build bridges between decision-makers and the public. Elected to the City Council of Trois-Rivières in 2017, she has held several strategic positions, including chair of the Public Works and Engineering Committee and vice-chair of the Land Use Planning Committee. She has also served on several boards of directors, including that of the Régie du bâtiment du Québec, where she represented Quebec’s cities and municipalities for three years. As the host of a public affairs program on 106.9 Mauricie until very recently, she engaged daily with citizens, experts, and decision-makers from all walks of life. This experience has allowed her to develop a deep understanding of regional issues as well as a solid reputation for being a good listener, an astute analyst, and someone who is close to the community. Today, Valérie Renaud-Martin is committed to defending the interests of the citizens of Trois-Rivières with strength and determination and to representing the Mauricie region in the National Assembly.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Steven Roy-Cullen

    Steven Roy-Cullen

    A well-known figure among the people of Trois-Rivières, Steven has devoted his life to building a more just and supportive society. As assistant director of Comité de solidarité / Trois-Rivières and president of the Groupement pour la défense des droits sociaux de Trois-Rivières, he works to weave bonds of solidarity here and elsewhere so that everyone can live with dignity. Aware of the need to change Quebec's political culture, he now wishes to bring his daily struggle to the National Assembly.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
34.5 pts
Turnout
68.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.7 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean Boulet Elected CAQ 18,859 50.8
Steven Roy Cullen QS 6,069 16.4
Laurent Vézina PQ 5,323 14.3
Karine Pépin PCQ 4,552 12.3
Adams Tekougoum QLP 2,056 5.5
Éric Trottier Other 148 0.4
Georges Samman Other 108 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026