Riding profile

Maskinongé

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Maskinongé: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

CAQ

Toss-up

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • CAQ 29.9%

    Simon Allaire incumbent

  • PQ 29.1%

    Isabelle Blais

  • PCQ 20.1%

    Marc-André Cloutier

  • QLP 13.8%

    Nancy Mignault

  • QS 6.1%

    Simon Piotte

  • Other 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin
  3. CharlesbourgPCQ61 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

CAQ PQ PCQ QLP
HereMaskinongé 29.9%29.1%20.1%13.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 21.3% +8.6 27.9% +1.2 16.1% +4.0 23.4% −9.6

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Maskinongé, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the CAQ ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the PQ, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Simon Allaire

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Simon Allaire

    Simon Allaire

    Simon Allaire was elected MNA for Maskinongé in 2018, then appointed parliamentary assistant to the President of the Treasury Board. Engaged for 20 years in the economic development of the region, he notably served as senior director at Desjardins Entreprises and as general manager of the Centre local de développement (CLD) of the MRC de Maskinongé. He holds a bachelor's degree in economics from UQTR.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Claude Ladouceur

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Gilles Brodeur

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Marc-André Cloutier

    Marc-André Cloutier

    Originally from the region and father of two young boys, Marc-André is a former technician on the CF-18s of the Canadian Armed Forces. After studying aeronautics at Cégep Édouard-Montpetit and five years of military service, he returned to his native region, where he is now an entrepreneur. His career has given him a solid understanding of the realities faced by families and entrepreneurs in Maskinongé. Marc-André wants to represent the citizens of Maskinongé with discipline, proximity, and determination. He advocates concrete solutions to reduce the tax and regulatory burden, improve access to healthcare, facilitate access to homeownership, and promote the economic development of the region. He believes that responsible management of the State is essential to Quebec's prosperity.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Isabelle Blais

    Isabelle Blais

    Isabelle Blais is part of this new generation of artists who are not afraid to commit themselves to their convictions. Actress and singer-songwriter, she has appeared in more than thirty films and series, including STAT, C.A., Trauma, among others.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Nancy Mignault

    Nancy Mignault

    Engaged in her community for several years, Nancy Mignault has chosen to make the leap into provincial politics under the Liberal banner. For more than 24 years, Ms. Mignault served as executive director of Technoscience Mauricie, Centre-du-Québec, Lanaudière and Laurentides. This organization's mission is to develop young people's interest in science across the province. Among other things, she promoted awareness of the scientific world among young girls, enabling them to see that it is possible to work in this field. This interest in developing the next generation of Quebecers has characterized Ms. Mignault's commitment over all these years. Nancy Mignault's political involvement began at the municipal level, as a councillor for the municipality of Saint-Étienne-des-Grès from 2017 to 2021, then as mayor from 2017 to 2021. She ultimately announced that she would not seek a second term for the last municipal elections, last fall. As first magistrate, she notably worked to better secure residential neighbourhoods near school zones and to bring to completion a long-awaited "skate park" project among young people. She also advanced several structuring files, including those of the route des Pins, the aerated ponds and the drinking water supply, while managing major situations such as the impacts of Storm Debbie and the closure of Highway 55 in both directions. With several years of experience in politics and education, Nancy Mignault is very sensitive to the importance of the decisions we make for the future of our young people. Her talents as a mobilizer with various actors in the school, economic and political worlds will make a difference. An ideal candidate to serve the voters of Maskinongé, she embodies the type of leadership the constituency needs. × I commit to voting for Nancy Mignault as member for the constituency of Maskinongé

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Simon Piotte

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
37.4 pts
Turnout
70.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-36.5 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Simon Allaire Elected CAQ 17,096 53.5
Serge Noël PCQ 5,131 16.1
Dominique Gélinas PQ 4,519 14.1
Simon Piotte QS 3,162 9.9
Alexandra Malenfant-Veilleux QLP 1,619 5.1
Daniel Simon Other 227 0.7
Françoise Boisvert Other 90 0.3
Alain Bélanger Other 69 0.2
Gilles Brodeur Other 40 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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