Riding profile
L'Assomption
The question
L'Assomption: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PQ
Toss-up
- Probability
- 65%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.6
- P(close race)
- 46%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereL'Assomption | 32.5% | 28.7% | 16.2% | 13.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +4.6 | 21.3% +7.4 | 23.4% −7.2 | 16.1% −3.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
L'Assomption, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing. This riding is composed of fragments of the former L'Assomption (100 %) and Berthier (24 %).
Sitting member
François Legault
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
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CAQ Challenger
Geneviève Pettersen
Author, columnist and host, Geneviève Pettersen is one of the best-known voices in Quebec’s media landscape. For more than 20 years, she has actively participated in major social debates and taken a particular interest in women’s status, education, family, culture and the French language. Throughout her career, she has collaborated with Radio-Canada, QUB radio and Cogeco, in addition to writing columns for La Presse+, the Journal de Montréal, the Journal de Québec and Substack. Author of several bestselling works, including La déesse des mouches à feu, adapted for the stage and screen, and La reine de rien, she also works as a screenwriter and creator. Her career has led her to speak with women, parents, young people, teachers, artists and citizens across Quebec, and to highlight their concerns and realities. She has also supported various causes, including Mères avec pouvoir, Tel-jeunes and the 28 Days Without Alcohol Challenge. After years of commenting on, recounting and debating the issues shaping Quebec, Geneviève Pettersen now wishes to go further and participate directly in decision-making. She wants to put her experience, voice and energy at the service of the citizens of L’Assomption and contribute concretely to advancing the issues that matter to her.
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PCQ Challenger
Patrick Lemieux
Physicist engineer and doctor in materials science, Patrick has a career marked by rigor, intellectual curiosity and the search for concrete solutions. His experience in industry and innovation allowed him to work at the heart of projects that require both a long-term vision and the ability to turn ideas into tangible results.
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PQ Challenger
Maxime Laporte
Maxime St-Laurent Laporte is a constitutional lawyer and doctoral candidate in law, known for long-standing work defending the French language and Quebec's national affirmation. The L'Assomption candidate chaired the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal and the Mouvement Québec français. A researcher, author, and prolific communicator, he now serves the independence project. He is motivated by love for the Quebec people and confidence in their ability to stand on their own.
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QLP Challenger
Marie Claire Anglade
A health professional, Marie Claire has been practicing for over fifteen years in massage therapy, orthotherapy, kinesitherapy, and holistic health. Over the years, she has witnessed the realities experienced by many people who struggle to obtain the services they need. Engaged in her community, she has also directed and co-organized several events focused on inclusion and solidarity, in collaboration with citizens, organizations, and local actors. This direct contact with people and their daily lives is what leads her today to want to get involved in politics. Marie Claire is a person who listens, who brings people together, and who wants to advance concrete projects. × I commit to voting for Marie Claire Anglade as member of the National Assembly in the riding of L'Assomption
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QS Challenger Benoit Bourbonnais
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Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François Legault Elected | CAQ | 18,637 | 58.6 | — |
| Martin Lefebvre | QS | 4,553 | 14.3 | — |
| Catherine Provost | PQ | 4,370 | 13.8 | — |
| Ernesto Almeida | PCQ | 2,424 | 7.6 | — |
| Thomas Ano-Dumas | QLP | 1,806 | 5.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026