Riding profile

L'Assomption

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

L'Assomption: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
65%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
46%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 32.5%

    Maxime Laporte

  • CAQ 28.7%

    Geneviève Pettersen

  • QLP 16.2%

    Marie Claire Anglade

  • PCQ 13.0%

    Patrick Lemieux

  • QS 9.2%

    Benoit Bourbonnais

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ QLP PCQ
HereL'Assomption 32.5%28.7%16.2%13.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +4.6 21.3% +7.4 23.4% −7.2 16.1% −3.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

L'Assomption, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the CAQ, and the race could swing. This riding is composed of fragments of the former L'Assomption (100 %) and Berthier (24 %).

Sitting member

François Legault

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Geneviève Pettersen

    Geneviève Pettersen

    Author, columnist and host, Geneviève Pettersen is one of the best-known voices in Quebec’s media landscape. For more than 20 years, she has actively participated in major social debates and taken a particular interest in women’s status, education, family, culture and the French language. Throughout her career, she has collaborated with Radio-Canada, QUB radio and Cogeco, in addition to writing columns for La Presse+, the Journal de Montréal, the Journal de Québec and Substack. Author of several bestselling works, including La déesse des mouches à feu, adapted for the stage and screen, and La reine de rien, she also works as a screenwriter and creator. Her career has led her to speak with women, parents, young people, teachers, artists and citizens across Quebec, and to highlight their concerns and realities. She has also supported various causes, including Mères avec pouvoir, Tel-jeunes and the 28 Days Without Alcohol Challenge. After years of commenting on, recounting and debating the issues shaping Quebec, Geneviève Pettersen now wishes to go further and participate directly in decision-making. She wants to put her experience, voice and energy at the service of the citizens of L’Assomption and contribute concretely to advancing the issues that matter to her.

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Patrick Lemieux

    Patrick Lemieux

    Physicist engineer and doctor in materials science, Patrick has a career marked by rigor, intellectual curiosity and the search for concrete solutions. His experience in industry and innovation allowed him to work at the heart of projects that require both a long-term vision and the ability to turn ideas into tangible results.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Maxime Laporte

    Maxime Laporte

    Maxime St-Laurent Laporte is a constitutional lawyer and doctoral candidate in law, known for long-standing work defending the French language and Quebec's national affirmation. The L'Assomption candidate chaired the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal and the Mouvement Québec français. A researcher, author, and prolific communicator, he now serves the independence project. He is motivated by love for the Quebec people and confidence in their ability to stand on their own.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Marie Claire Anglade

    Marie Claire Anglade

    A health professional, Marie Claire has been practicing for over fifteen years in massage therapy, orthotherapy, kinesitherapy, and holistic health. Over the years, she has witnessed the realities experienced by many people who struggle to obtain the services they need. Engaged in her community, she has also directed and co-organized several events focused on inclusion and solidarity, in collaboration with citizens, organizations, and local actors. This direct contact with people and their daily lives is what leads her today to want to get involved in politics. Marie Claire is a person who listens, who brings people together, and who wants to advance concrete projects. × I commit to voting for Marie Claire Anglade as member of the National Assembly in the riding of L'Assomption

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger

    Benoit Bourbonnais

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
41.8 pts
Turnout
70.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-35.2 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François Legault Elected CAQ 18,637 58.6
Martin Lefebvre QS 4,553 14.3
Catherine Provost PQ 4,370 13.8
Ernesto Almeida PCQ 2,424 7.6
Thomas Ano-Dumas QLP 1,806 5.7
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026