Riding profile

Joliette

Provincial riding — QC · Mixed · rest

The question

Joliette: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 49.6%

    Véronique Venne

  • CAQ 20.9%

    Clodine Desrochers

  • PCQ 11.4%

    Rémi Lafrenière

  • QLP 10.3%

    Sana Arfaoui

  • QS 6.8%

    Flavie Trudel

  • Other 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ CAQ PCQ QLP
HereJoliette 49.6%20.9%11.4%10.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +21.7 21.3% −0.4 16.1% −4.7 23.4% −13.1

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Joliette, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 50% vote share, against 21% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

François St-Louis

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Challenger
    Clodine Desrochers

    Clodine Desrochers

    A well-known and well-liked public figure, Clodine Desrochers made her mark on Quebec’s television landscape for nearly 20 years. People-oriented and recognized for her strong listening skills, she now wishes to put her professional experience, perspective as a mother and commitment at the service of the people of Joliette. Host of Les Saisons de Clodine, and then Tout simplement Clodine for more than a decade on TVA, she was the central figure in these service programs where, surrounded by specialized columnists, she offered viewers practical advice and solutions to help them live better every day. Her varied experience also includes hosting a daily program on regional community radio station CFNJ in Lanaudière, publishing creative works, hosting conferences, managing accounts and developing business for companies in the health sector. She holds a bachelor’s degree in history and a certificate in teaching from the Université de Montréal, and has developed a nuanced understanding of social issues and their impact on people’s lives.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Boris Geynet

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Xavie Jean-Bourgeault

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Rémi Lafrenière

    Rémi Lafrenière

    A plumber, family man, teacher, and speaker, Rémi is a hands-on professional who is well acquainted with the realities of workers and families. His diverse career has enabled him to develop an approach grounded in listening, pragmatism, and a sense of responsibility, as well as a solid ability to find concrete solutions to everyday challenges. Rémi wants to represent the citizens of Joliette with proximity, rigour, and determination. He advocates concrete solutions to promote job creation, improve access to healthcare, reduce the tax and regulatory burden, and facilitate access to homeownership. He believes that responsible management of the State is essential to the prosperity of families and businesses.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Véronique Venne

    Véronique Venne

    Mayor of Sainte-Marie-Salomé in Lanaudière for thirteen years, she is also an English as a Second Language teacher at two high schools in the region. Véronique is a woman who loves to take on challenges when it comes to defending the interests of her fellow citizens.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Sana Arfaoui

    Sana Arfaoui

    A mother living in the region, Sana Arfaoui has spent more than 20 years working at major Canadian banks, where she held positions as a professional, manager, and advisor to executive teams. A financial planner for 19 years and a certified instructor in the field, she has helped thousands of entrepreneurs and families plan for their future and achieve their goals. Her knowledge of the financial sector led her to serve on the board of directors of the Institute of Financial Planning. She holds the designations of Certified Administrator (AdmA), Certified Human Resources Advisor (CRHA), and Financial Planner (Pl. Fin.). She holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration, an MBA for financial services executives, and an executive MBA, and has also completed coursework toward a Ph.D. in business administration. A professor of financial planning for the past four years, the QLP candidate in Joliette conducts research on governance, corporate social responsibility, performance, and equity and inclusion in the workplace. She chairs and organizes academic conferences that showcase Quebec’s expertise throughout the Francophone world, including a recent conference dedicated to inclusive and sustainable education. As an entrepreneur, Sana Arfaoui has also organized economic missions to French-speaking countries to open up new markets for local businesses amid an uncertain geopolitical climate.

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Flavie Trudel

    Flavie Trudel

    Flavie Trudel is an engaged woman from Lanaudière who has devoted her life to education, social justice and defending public services. She taught for more than thirty years at Cégep de Joliette while actively contributing to her community as a feminist and union activist. Having already run several times as a Québec solidaire candidate in Joliette, she brings a strong voice supporting equality, accessible education and environmental protection, driven by a conviction to concretely improve the lives of people in her community.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
14.3 pts
Turnout
69.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.0 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François St-Louis Elected CAQ 17,925 45.6
Véronique Venne PQ 12,281 31.2
Flavie Trudel QS 4,476 11.4
Pascal Laurin PCQ 3,470 8.8
Diana Mélissa Crispin QLP 1,178 3.0
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026