Riding profile
Verchères
The question
Verchères: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?
Current forecast
PQ
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.3
- P(close race)
- 5%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PQ | CAQ | QLP | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVerchères | 39.7% | 26.3% | 14.1% | 10.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.9% +11.8 | 21.3% +5.0 | 23.4% −9.4 | 16.1% −5.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Verchères, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 40% vote share, against 26% for the CAQ, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Suzanne Roy
Sits with CAQ
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
CAQ Challenger 
Marie-Hélène Leboeuf
A seasoned public and government affairs professional, Marie-Hélène Leboeuf has in-depth knowledge of Quebec institutions and on-the-ground realities.
source ↗ - Other Challenger
Germain Dallaire
source ↗ -
PCQ Challenger Claude Gagnon
source ↗ - PQ Challenger
Guy Lapointe Jr
Graduate of a police technology program at Cégep John Abbott, Guy Jr Lapointe was, until very recently, head of communications in the office of the director of the Fire Safety Service of the City of Montreal. After working for fifteen years as a relief supervisor, investigator, and patrol officer, he gradually specialized in communications and public affairs related to emergency services. He held several positions at the Sûreté du Québec, notably as captain, head of the media communications service, and then as chief inspector, director of communications and international relations. He also served as secretary general of the International Francophone Network for Police Training (FRANCOPOL) and held the position of strategic advisor and head of communications at the Bureau des enquêtes indépendantes (BEI). “Wearing the colours of the Parti Québécois in 2026 represents for me a great pride and the beginning of a mandate to advance our nation toward independence. The riding of Verchères, the historic cradle of Quebec nationalism, must once again become a beacon for the march toward sovereignty.”
source ↗ -
QLP Challenger 
Yacine Masrouki
Aged 20, Yacine Masrouki is a student at the Université de Montréal. He previously attended the École nationale d'aérotechnique, where he became involved in defending student living conditions. Having himself held two jobs to finance his entry into university, Yacine knows firsthand the reality of young people who study and work at the same time. Today, he is entering politics for the young people of his generation and for everything they have to offer Quebec. × I commit to voting for Yacine Masrouki as deputy in the constituency of Verchères
source ↗ -
QS Challenger Léonie Thibault-Rousseau
source ↗
Previous election · 2022
Detailed result · QC 2022
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suzanne Roy Elected | CAQ | 23,672 | 51.3 | — |
| Cédric Gagnon-Ducharme | PQ | 9,561 | 20.7 | — |
| Manon Harvey | QS | 6,665 | 14.4 | — |
| Pascal Déry | PCQ | 3,269 | 7.1 | — |
| Gabriel Lévesque | QLP | 2,438 | 5.3 | — |
| Nadim Saikali | Other | 318 | 0.7 | — |
| Germain Dallaire | Other | 97 | 0.2 | — |
| Lucien Beauregard | Other | 86 | 0.2 | — |
| Pauline Boisvert | Other | 55 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
qc_2026