Riding profile

Pointe-aux-Trembles

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Pointe-aux-Trembles: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Pointe-aux-Trembles, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 36% vote share, against 33% for the Quebec Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chantal Rouleau

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Chantal Rouleau

    Chantal Rouleau

    A proud Pointelière, Chantal Rouleau is an upright woman who has the interests of Quebecers at heart. She made her mark in the field of environment before becoming a leading figure in the fight against corruption.

    source ↗

Current forecast

PQ

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 36.3%
  • PLQ 33.0%
  • QS 12.6%
  • CAQ 10.8%
  • PCQ 5.9%
  • Other 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ PLQ QS CAQ
HerePointe-aux-Trembles 36.3%33.0%12.6%10.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 30.1% +6.3 27.2% +5.9 8.3% +4.2 20.3% −9.5

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · QC 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
26.0 pts
Turnout
66.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chantal Rouleau Elected CAQ 12,156 45.9
Jocelyn Desjardins PQ 5,265 19.9
Simon Tremblay-Pepin QS 4,084 15.4
Byanca Jeune PLQ 2,750 10.4
Yves Beaulieu PCQ 1,804 6.8
Alex Di Pardo Other 268 1.0
Marc Michaud Other 82 0.3
Geneviève Royer Other 53 0.2
Louis Chandonnet Other 33 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026