Riding profile

Pointe-aux-Trembles

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Pointe-aux-Trembles: will CAQ lose this seat to PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 36.4%

    Stéphane Paquet

  • QLP 21.9%

    Naima Indira Som

  • CAQ 20.0%

    Chantal Rouleau incumbent

  • QS 11.4%

    Mégane Charron

  • PCQ 9.1%

    Maxim Tremblay-Gaudet

  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QLP CAQ QS
HerePointe-aux-Trembles 36.4%21.9%20.0%11.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +8.5 23.4% −1.5 21.3% −1.2 9.6% +1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Pointe-aux-Trembles, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the CAQ in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 36% vote share, against 22% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Chantal Rouleau

Sits with CAQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • CAQ Incumbent
    Chantal Rouleau

    Chantal Rouleau

    A proud Pointelière, Chantal Rouleau is an upright woman who has the interests of Quebecers at heart. She made her mark in the field of environment before becoming a leading figure in the fight against corruption.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Daniel Lasalle

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Geneviève Royer

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Maude Chapdelaine

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Maxim Tremblay-Gaudet

    Maxim Tremblay-Gaudet

    Pointe-aux-Trembles resident, Maxim knows well the reality of workers and families in his community. Having started working at a young age in the construction sector, he quickly developed a sense of responsibility, effort and perseverance.

    source ↗
  • PQ Challenger
    Stéphane Paquet

    Stéphane Paquet

    After representing Quebec in London as its general delegate, Stéphane Paquet has been president and CEO of Montréal International since 2020, helping attract companies, talent, and international organizations to Greater Montreal. He was also editor-in-chief and deputy publisher of Les Affaires. His economic expertise, knowledge of Quebec and Montreal, and international network make him a strong ally for SMEs. He will help them meet challenges and develop export markets; he believes Montreal's universities, aerospace, life sciences, video games, special effects, cybersecurity, intelligence, and culture give it major global assets.

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Naima Indira Som

    Naima Indira Som

    A 26-year-old insurance adviser, Naïma Marylène Indira Som is entering provincial politics to join the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard's leadership. A graduate of a bachelor's degree in political science from Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), the PLQ candidate in Pointe-aux-Trembles is currently pursuing a master's degree in the same discipline, specializing in international politics and international law. In her work as an insurance adviser, she supports people and families seeking to protect what matters most to them. Her experience in management and with children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) strengthened her sense of responsibility and solution-oriented mindset. A volunteer board member of a youth centre, Naïma Marylène Indira Som believes lasting change begins with civic engagement. Sensitive to the realities of families and young people, she advocates politics based on listening, integrity and rigour, and wants to help strengthen access to quality education and effective public services. × I commit to voting for Naima Indira Som as member for the riding of Pointe-aux-Trembles

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    Mégane Charron

    Mégane Charron

    Mégane Charron is from Montreal's East End. She wants to represent Québec solidaire in Pointe-aux-Trembles in order to bring citizens closer to where decisions are made. Having experienced homelessness in her youth, she knows the importance of a strong social safety net and believes the best policies are built with the people directly affected. A master's student in political science at UQAM, spokesperson for Auberge du cœur Le Foyer, and active in homelessness prevention, Mégane combines grassroots experience with political reflection. An intersectional feminist and member of the 2SLGBTQIA+ community, she advocates social housing, accessible public services, and a fairer, more solidaristic, and independent Quebec.

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
CAQ
Margin
26.0 pts
Turnout
66.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.8 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chantal Rouleau Elected CAQ 12,156 45.9
Jocelyn Desjardins PQ 5,265 19.9
Simon Tremblay-Pepin QS 4,084 15.4
Byanca Jeune QLP 2,750 10.4
Yves Beaulieu PCQ 1,804 6.8
Alex Di Pardo Other 268 1.0
Marc Michaud Other 82 0.3
Geneviève Royer Other 53 0.2
Louis Chandonnet Other 33 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026