Riding profile

Camille-Laurin

Provincial riding — QC · Urban · mtl

The question

Camille-Laurin: a safe seat for the PQ?

Current forecast

PQ

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PQ 47.1%

    Paul St-Pierre Plamondon incumbent

  • QLP 24.8%

    Earl Corales

  • QS 11.6%

    René Gauvreau

  • CAQ 7.3%

    Matys Lavigne

  • PCQ 6.8%

    Jessy Comtois

  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Drummond–Bois-FrancsCAQ60 %0.8 pt margin
  2. MaskinongéCAQ80 %1.0 pt margin
  3. Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ86 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PQ QLP QS CAQ
HereCamille-Laurin 47.1%24.8%11.6%7.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.9% +19.2 23.4% +1.4 9.6% +2.0 21.3% −14.0

Provincial averages computed across the 127 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Camille-Laurin, an urban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the PQ in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PQ ahead at 47% vote share, against 25% for the Quebec Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon

Sits with PQ

Since
2022-10-03
Parliament
43th

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • PQ Incumbent
    Paul St-Pierre Plamondon

    Paul St-Pierre Plamondon

    Leader of the Parti Québécois since October 2020 and MNA for Camille-Laurin, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is the party's candidate for premier. He seeks re-election in eastern Montreal to repair the injustice affecting the area. Elected in 2022, he made the PQ an alternative to a worn-out government, guided by conviction and Quebec independence. He holds a certificate in international law from Lund University, civil- and common-law degrees from McGill, and an MBA from Oxford. He practised law in Bolivia, Belgium, Montreal, and Gatineau, speaks five languages, co-founded Génération d'idées in 2009, and is the author of three books on Quebec politics and independence.

    source ↗
  • CAQ Challenger
    Matys Lavigne

    Matys Lavigne

    Involved with the Coalition Avenir Québec since the age of 15, Matys is deeply committed to defending and preserving Quebec identity. He is determined to ensure that Quebec's future is built in French. Having worked at the party's permanent office and as a political attaché at the National Assembly of Quebec, Matys wishes to put his experience and knowledge to use in serving the residents of Camille-Laurin.

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Chantal Poulin

    source ↗
  • Other Challenger

    Louis Chandonnet

    source ↗
  • PCQ Challenger
    Jessy Comtois

    Jessy Comtois

    source ↗
  • QLP Challenger
    Earl Corales

    Earl Corales

    A graduate in social sciences from Collège Vanier, Earl Corales is currently studying political science at McGill University. Passionate about Quebec art, culture and history, he believes in an open, ambitious Quebec proud of what unites us. His path has taken him to the heart of our institutions, from the Ministry of Family to the National Assembly, including constituency work. There, he supported citizens with their démarches, worked with community organizations and met people from all walks of life. His experience with seniors in CHSLDs also allowed him to see firsthand the importance of humane, accessible public services. His involvement continued with the Quebec Liberal Party, notably through the Youth Commission, then as press attaché to leader Charles Milliard and head of digital communications. These experiences shaped his conviction that Quebec can and must aim higher. Faced with the cost of living, the housing crisis and challenges in education and public services, the PLQ candidate in Camille-Laurin wants to give voice to a new generation ready to act. × I commit to voting for Earl Corales as member for the riding of Camille-Laurin

    source ↗
  • QS Challenger
    René Gauvreau

    René Gauvreau

    source ↗

Previous election · 2022

Won by
PQ
Margin
9.7 pts
Turnout
63.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.6 pts

Detailed result · QC 2022

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon Elected PQ 11,959 41.7 —
Richard Campeau CAQ 9,165 31.9 —
Christina Eyangos QLP 4,724 16.5 —
Christos Karteris PCQ 1,869 6.5 —
Bourama Keita Other 641 2.2 —
Jean-Pierre Émond Other 241 0.8 —
Grace St-Gelais Other 49 0.2 —
Charles Mc Nicoll Other 42 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
qc_2026